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Negative Indian ocean Dipole declared!
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Lahore getting frequent rains
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Karachi waiting for it’s turn
Precipitation and Temperature from July 16
Pakistan has turned into Monsoonistan as rains have moved into Pakistan, the only area of the country that continue to get proper rains is the northern areas that since the pre-monsoon activity in June is witnessing healthy amounts of rain while the central and southern areas continue to witness isolated events of rains however during the mid-week of July, some improvement was seen over the country, isolated rains occurred in Sindh and south Punjab while northern areas continued to witness almost daily thundershowers since July 6 though the activity weakened after July 10 before weakening strength on July 15 after a brief gap another monsoon spell is expected in the country.
Factors – Present Conditions
*Western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country.aaa
*Low pressure over West Bengal, Odisha and adjoining Bay of Bengal persists.
*Upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana and adjoining states of India.
Emerging Factors – Effect on Monsoon
Indian Ocean and Dust cloud image
*INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE - U.S Weather Agency since July 10 has declared Negative Indian Ocean dipole in the Indian Ocean while Madden-Julian Oscillation phase is also observed over Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea that can remain even during the third/fourth spell in the country. The sea surface temperature of Pacific ocean shows a slight cooling near the coast of South America which indicates towards weak La-Nina. In June, International weather Agencies hinted the possibility of formation of La-Nina later in the season.
*DUST CLOUD – Strong dust cloud presence over southern, moderate over central while weak over the extreme northern areas. There is no dust cloud cover over the northern areas as per today’s image.
Third Monsoon spell
On July 9, PWP mentioned the chances of third monsoon spell in the northern during the mid-week of July at ‘moderate’ and in coming days it was upgraded to ‘extremely high’, PWP also mentioned chances of monsoon activity in Sindh and south Punjab during the mid-week of July. On July 11, a date of July 15 (+1,-1 day error) was given for third spell in the northern areas. On July 12 night till July 14/July 15, weak monsoon activity was observed in Sindh and south Punjab, following are the total rain recorded for Sindh and South Punjab during that period;
- Mithi got 38 mm.
- Bahawalpur got 25 mm – South Punjab
- Chhor got 10 mm.
- Badin got 14 mm.
- Padidan got 14 mm.
- Thatta got 5 mm.
- Nawabshah got 8 mm.
- Karachi 2.1 mm
- Hyderabad got 1.7 mm
Since the third spell has just started in the northern areas therefore the highest rain recorded during the third spell (July 15 till July 17/July 18) will be given after the spell ends.
North – Rain, rain and rain
Highest 30 mm rain seen in north during 3rd spell as per COLA
This spell which started from July 15 can continue till July 17/July 18. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad, north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls).
The third spell which will continue till July 17/July 18 is weaker and isolated when compared to the second spell.
Central Areas – Missed thunderclouds!
South Punjab despite witnessing almost daily weak thundercloud formation near it, has not reported any traces. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/isolated shower in South Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and adjoining areas).
Due to the advancement of western trough ’13′, north-eastern parts of Balochistan and adjoining south Punjab has witnessed daily formation of thundercloud since July 15, partly/mostly cloudy with chances of Zhob, Musa Khel, Bharkhan, Dera Bugti, Qila Saifullah, Loralai and few adjoining districts of Balochistan.
South – Under cloud cover
Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas,
Chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Lasbella, and few adjoining districts), thundercloud activity for past days has been observed over these areas as well.
Fourth Monsoon spell
Strong thunderstorm activity seen during the 4th spell in North
In PWP’s monsoon update of July 13, it was mentioned that fourth monsoon spell can start after the third spell, the fourth spell has a better coverage. On July 16, PWP gave a date for the fourth monsoon spell in the northern that is July 20 (+1,-1 day error).
During the fourth spell, northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can witness heavy rain with chances of isolated very heavy rain in northern Punjab and adjoining Azad Kashmir while coastal areas & adjoining south-eastern parts of Sindh and North-eastern Balochistan & parts of south Punjab can witness light showers as per some models, no chances of proper rains yet in Sindh and south Punjab.
- Pakistan Weather Update will be updated once the third monsoon spell ends
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