‘Something new came from the sky!’

All is Red – The people were scared!

You are standing outside in rain, enjoying the cool breeze and the smell of the rain, suddenly you notice that your clothes are turning RED. The pond of rainwater is turning red, the wall of houses are red and when you look up at the sky red rain is falling on you, thick as a blood! Really red rain? Only saw it in haunted, science fiction or fantasy movies? Well they exist in real!

The Haunted Red Rain

The first well-documented reports of red rain came from the southern state of India, Kerala in the year 2001 though some reference of such incident have been recovered from the year 1818. After 2001, there had been reports of red rain in Kerala in 2011 and 2012. The unusually phenomenon also occurred in Sri Lanka in 2012 as well.

Hindu Mythology and Red rain

Particles from the red rain

As per the Hindu culture, the red rain signals the wave of destruction and woes, the God punishes those who have sinned. The killing of innocent also leads to red rain, following are further details about incident;

India shocked to see blood falling from Sky!

On July 25, 2001 –  The districts of Kottayam and Idukki witnessed a massive lightning followed by intense (locals say explosion) thunder. The unusually weather occurred for 20 minutes and over a small area, other places witnessed ‘normal’ rain. The people who witnessed this unusual event said that they observed rain of number of colours which included green, yellow and even black. The red rain was reported in the state till September with brief intervals. The unusually phenomenon gained  widespread attention in India after five years .

Winds of blood in Sri Lana?

Though after 2001, Kerala continued to witness this unusual phenomenon in the years to come but in 2012 Sri Lanka became the second country in the sub-continent to report this unusual occurrence. From November 15 till December 27, 2012 heavy rain fell over the northern and eastern parts of the country. This even gained international media attention at once!

Theories – What led the blood rain?

Red rain lashing Kerala in 2001 – Courtesy BBC

It is worth-mentioning that the red rain only occurred in the specific area of sub-continent that consists of Indian Kerala and Sri Lanka, we shall call is the ‘Red Region’. Following are the years in which red rain occurred in Kerala;

• 1818, 1846, 1872, 1880, 1896, 1950, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2012

There are may theories about this rain but we shall only mention the famous ones;

Meteor Explosion over India
First it was thought that the colour came from the burst of a meteor that mingled in with rain clouds.

Water-based Tornado splashes animals
A waterspout traveling over the sea might have brought the red rain, red representing the blood of fishes or bird.

Factories and Acid rain
Chemicals released by the factories which makes acid rain.

Government and airborne spores
Government of India believed that the winds carrying pollen grains or airborne spores from the local algae might be responsible, that was their final verdict.

Aliens invading India
A research at Gandhi University in India gained international press coverage when the scientists there said that they have believe that the red rain contains cells which are extraterrestrial as they have the potential to grow at the temperature of 300°C yet they have no DNA nor RNA.

What to believe and what not to?

According to historical record, red rain has been reported in the United Kingdom but Britishers mostly believe in dust particles or water spout for the unusual event. What causes the Kerala’s blood rain is still unknown as everyone in India has their own version, so what do you believe in?

What is and why it occur ?

And the mystery continue ??

There’s an old weather saying: ring around the moon means rain soon. There’s truth to this saying, because high cirrus clouds often come before a storm. Notice in these photos that the sky looks fairly clear. After all, you can see the sun or moon. And yet halos are a sign of high thin cirrus clouds drifting 20,000 feet or more above our heads.

These clouds contain millions of tiny ice crystals. The halos you see are caused by both refraction, or splitting of light, and also by reflection, or glints of light from these ice crystals. The crystals have to be oriented and positioned just so with respect to your eye, in order for the halo to appear.

• Very Active June in Pak and India

• Heavy pre-monsoon expected!

• Rains in Sindh, Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir 

June is mostly considered a hot month for Pakistan but in the end pre-monsoon activity can start in some parts of the country however this year the pre-monsoon activity started early in the country as first monsoonal activity occurred in South-eastern parts of Sindh on June 4, early than last many monsoon season. PWP had mentioned on June 4 the upcoming scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rainfall in the month of June. In Monsoon II article published on May 6, PWP mentioned the upcoming chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and some parts of Punjab in June. In Monsoon V published on June 7, PWP mentioned that monsoon onset could happen in the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June/first week of July.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’10′ is coming to the northern areas of the country on June 12 or June 13.

*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over north-eastern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh, now lies over Guajrat and adjoining Sindh coast, likely to persist till few days.

*A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation formed in the Bay of Bengal, in 24 to 36 hours it may intensify into a low pressure. It may move towards central India.

Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’

Most Pakistan is clear!

The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that has been a much disappointed in the year 2012. According to the latest charts, the dust cloud will disappear from the northern and central areas of the country that can only rain bearing clouds if they form to move into the country easily though the southern areas will remain under the grip of weak to moderate dust clouds. If comparing to 2011 and 2012, the dust cloud remained over the country in the month of June but this year it is in weaker form in June. Overall the situation has improved.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

PWP’s expected condition on June 13/June 14

• The Article would be updated on June 15!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of the pre-monsoon spells in the country as PWP’s pre-monsoon forecast was around June 14 (+2,-2 day error) and the rains will occur around this time frame. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year in terms of pre-monsoon. On June 10 (June 9 in North), PWP upgraded the chances of pre-monsoon in the north, central and southern parts of the country to ‘extremely high’

As of 6:00 pm PKT June 11, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of developing weather systems are shown as;

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-eastern Arabian sea now over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, it will persist till few days. Another Circulation from Bay of Bengal can reach lower central India on June 14 and it could intensify once again into a low pressure. Between June 15/June 16, it will be over Gujarat and adjoining coastal Sindh and absorb the existing moisture from Arabian sea’s circulation, come strong thunderstorms can cross into southern Pakistan even Karachi. Late June 18, it will over the Northern Arabian sea as a  insignificant system. Another possibility of this system it that as it reaches central India, it will move towards north-western India and adjoining Pakistan.

We have to wait at least till two days to get a clear picture on the Bay of Bengal’s much anticipated system.

First Pre-Monsoon Spell

“Alert: North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). During this period rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds which could result in heavy downpour there as well.”

Islamabad

June 11 till June 18, probability of 100 mm rainfall in North

Rain at times heavy can occur in capital from June 11 night till the end of the week with intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (>56 km/h).

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

• 31°C to 37 °C in Islamabad, variation expected during the first days.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan

Rain at times heavy can with strong winds (>56 km/h)occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience also experience rain. The provincial capital of Balochistan Quetta would remain dry with partly/mostly cloudy skies on June 13 and June 14.

Following are the temperature expected;

• 34°C to 39 °C Peshawar.
• 32°C to 36°C Quetta.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities. Rain at times scattered heavy (very heavy in NE parts of Punjab) likely from June 12/June 13 though some rain has occurred on June 11. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and fast to strong winds (>56 km/h).

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

• 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
• 35°C to 41 °C in Faisalabad.
• 26°C to 31°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with thunder/lightning can occur during this week in the eastern areas of the province, there are more chances of isolated heavy falls in Bahawalnagar districts.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

• 36 °C to 42°C in Multan.
• 37 °C to 43 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

Very large thunderstorm over India on June 11 – Size of bigger than Punjab

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with scatterred moderate falls could occur in upper Sindh with thunder/lightning.

Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.

• 39°C to 44 °C in Sukkur.
•  40°C to 45 °C in Larkana.
• 42°C to 46 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. From June 12/June 13, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in this part (chances of isolated heavy falls in Mirpur Khas, Tharparkar and Badin districts).

Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.

• 35 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities.  From June 13/June 14 (June 12 in Thatta districts), rain with thunder/lightning along with fast winds (chances of isolated heavy falls in Thatta).

Karachi has been under a grip of hot winds since past week due to the formation of a circulation in the Arabian sea.

• 36 °C to 40°C in Karachi.

India drenched by Monsoon

With each day passing by, the monsoon is quickly advancing into the country and according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon is 12% above normal in the country while India would be covered by monsoon by the end of June.

In other news, stormy conditions have killed 40 people in Sri Lanka. Each year thousands of people are displaced in the Sub-continent due to the monsoon season.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

Pakistan-India: Always bitter rivals

Birmingham is under the wet spell since few days and the chances of showers persist even tomorrow (June 15). High possibility of showers in the city though they could fade away before evening. Maximum temperature can be 14/15°C while the lowest could be 9/8°C, the city can experience windy conditions (35 km/h till 49 km/h). Who you think will win the match?

• This article has been shared by Waseem Ahmed from Karachi, Pakistan

Given are some interesting Weather Events of Karachi regarding maximum temperature during last 22 years or so.

25^th MARCH, 1992:

On that historical day when Pakistan won the Cricket World Cup 1992 in Australia, Karachi had a beautiful cold and rainy day, it continued drizzle or rain from morning to late afternoon with almost no sun throughout the day, on that day Karachi’s maximum temperature was only 22.5°C and minimum was 21.6°C, that was THE SMALLEST DIFFERENCE (ONLY 0.9°C) OF TEMPERATURE BETWEEN MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF A DAY IN KARACHI I have never seen before or after then.

31^st JULY, 1992:

Due to a complete cloudy, drizzly and rainy day of Monsoon, in the end of July Karachi’s maximum temperature was only 27°C on that day. It was the whole day without a minute of sunshine in the city and it kept drizzling or light raining from early morning (6 am) to evening (7 pm) in the city as it was the ‘COOLEST DAY FOR THE MONTH OF JULY’ in Karachi I have seen till to date.

1^st JUNE, 1997:

An unusually late ‘WD’ caused a great thunderstorm on Sunday, 1^st June, 1997 morning in Karachi with AMAZINGLY STRONG COOL WINDS from E or NE accompanied the rain that continued for 30 – 40 minutes in different areas  of  the city and some areas reported to receive hail as well. On that day city’s MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 29°C “COLDEST DAY OF JUNE” REMAINED AS A RECORD TILL 6^th JUNE, 2010 when due to a cyclone’s rain Karachi temperature was just 28°C (given in later part).

8^th To 15^th OCTOBER, 1998:

Dry heat is common during October in Karachi but it was a very long heat wave from 6^th Oct to 13^th Oct-98 (8 successive hot days – max temperature detail: 37, 37, 40, 42, 41, 42, 40, & 40°C respectively). Then due to a tropical disturbance in Arabian Sea clouds & rain caused A HUGE DROPPED IN THE CITY’S TEMPERATURE and brought great relief to Karachiites from a very long hot week (clouds started to arrive from SSE since 13^th Oct afternoon, rained all day on 14^th Oct with breaks and showers on 15^th with cold winds).

THE MAX TEMPERATURE THAT WAS 40°C on 13^th DROPPED to 31°C on 14^th OCTOBER & ONLY 25°C on 15^th OCTOBER i.e. “15° FALL IN JUST 2 DAYS” and THIS THE BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPERATURE I HAVE SEEN NOT ONLY IN ‘OCTOBER’ BUT ALSO FOR ANY MONTH IN KARACHI DURING LAST 24 YEARS (according to my recorded data).

6^th JUNE, 2010:

A Tropical storm developed in the Arabian Sea “Phet” that caused a huge amount of rain on coastal Makran, intermittent rain with strong & cool winds continued throughout the day in Karachi on Sunday, 6^th June, 2010 as temperature of the city was even unable to cross 28°C on that day. The day was so cool and pleasant that people were feeling comfortable ‘without FANS even in JUNE’ and that day still stands the ‘COOLEST DAY OF JUNE’ or the LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE i.e. 28°C DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE FOR OVER 24 YEARS IN KARACHI.

Portal Interactive – Get Interactive now!

Articles published by Portal Interactive do not represent the views of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) as Portal Interactive is a place for PWP’s fans! Send your weather articles, research, ideas, videos or pictures on babar.cyclone@yahoo.com Your article would be published on Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) with your name and city, without any changes. So you could also be the part of Portal Interactive!

‘Monsoon mayhem in India – Early this year!’

Floodwaters engulf India

In what is being described as the ‘Himalayan Tsunami’, north-western India has drowned due to floodwaters as the country experiences one of its worst floods in history.

Weather History – What led to the floods?

On June 15, western trough ’10′ was leaving the northern areas of Pakistan while on the same day a low pressure system was over central areas of India. The western trough shifted its focus towards the northern areas of India on June 16 as it lied over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining Pakistan. On June 16, it caused the west moving low pressure system to curve in a NNE direction, on June 17 the low pressure moved towards North-eastern Rajasthan and adjoining Uttar Pradesh as it started interacting with the western winds.

The Himalayan Tsunami rages on!

Temple hit by gushing waters

Monsoon has come many weeks early this year in India and heavier than usual in this part of India. On June 17, the Uttarakhand state received 340 mm (13 inches) of rain which is 375% above normal as compared to the normal 65.9 mm (2 inches). Heavy downpour lasted till four days in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and adjoining northern states. Following are the key features of 2013 North India Floods;

• 500 people dead while 60, 000 stranded as per International Media.
• Wettest rain in five decades.
• Worst floods in NW India in 60 years.
• 375% above normal rain in Uttarakhand.
• National capital New Delhi hit hard.

Nepal has witnessed landslides and floods as 39 people have died due to similar conditions in the country. In short the same weather system has killed 14 people in Pakistan, 500 in India and 39 in Nepal.

Lahore experienced it days ago

Before the Himalayan Tsunami, a short burst of severe weather was observed in North-eastern areas of Punjab especially the provincial capital Lahore where 102 mm (4 inches) of rain fell between June 14 and June 15, predicted by PWP in its update on June 9. The burst of heavy rain killed 14 people in the city. Lahore’s monthly average rain for June is 36.3 mm (1 inches) but this June a total of 153 mm was observed out of which 102 mm fell in few hours.

‘Want to see a special cloud?’

Lenticular cloud – Can you guess this place?

These clouds are a special type of clouds they mostly occur over the mountainous regions as they need the perfect conditions to form, lenticular clouds form at high altitude between 6,000 to 12,000 meter mostly near or over mountains as the stable moisture laden air flows rapidly over rise in elevation, causing condensation. Afterwards the warm air forms a wavy pattern resulting in a wave cloud. The meteorological name of lenticular cloud is ‘Altocumulus lenticularis’. They are indeed a stunning meteorological phenomenon!

Mistaken for UFOs !

Lenticular clouds over K2 mountain in Pakistan

Some people have mistaken them for Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) as these clouds are similar to the Alien spaceship portrayed in the Hollywood films.

Apart from UFOs, they also resemble pancakes or even plates – depending upon the thinking of a person.

Visible in Pakistan?

Lenticular clouds can be easily differentiated due to their unique look, since they form between 6,000 to 12,000 metre, they are visible in the extreme northern areas of the country along the Himalayan and the Hindu Kush ranges (both are above 7,000 meter)!

• Monsoon hits the north on June 27

• Frequent rains since June 25

• Rains return after 7 days!

New Update is issued on July 4 –  Go Below

Temperature and Precipitation till July 5

Monsoon has advanced into the northern areas of the country mainly Azad Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab on June 27. Last rains (pre-monsoon) that occurred in the country was on June 16/June 17. After that rain (monsoon) again started falling from June 25. On June 26, 65 mm rain fell in Murree, Punjab while on June 27, 71 mm rain fell in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The first spell of monsoon rains is mostly moderate and it has become significant only due to the western trough ’11′, the rains can continue till early first week of July. Across the border, North-western India had one of it’s worst flood in years with fresh heavy rain falling near the flood-hit areas.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’11′ is over the north-western areas of the country.

*Low pressure over south-east Utter Pradesh (India).

Emerging Factors – Effect on Monsoon

Sea surface temperature – Dust cloud

*INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE - Sea temperatures in the western Indian ocean near African coast are cool while the temperatures in the eastern Indian ocean near Indonesia are high. Slight trend towards negative Indian ocean dipole.

*DUST CLOUD – Strong dust cloud presence over southern, moderate over central while weak over the northern areas.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 80% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

PWP’s expected condition on June 29 night/June 30

• The Article would be updated when once the first spell is over!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of the pre-monsoon activity in the country as PWP’s pre-monsoon forecast was around June 14 (+2,-2 day error), PWP on June 4 told that scattered to widespread pre-monsoon can occur in the country and on June 8 PWP told that very heavy rainfall can occur in NE Punjab though SE Sindh did not get the ‘expected intensity’  rains. For the onset of Monsoon, PWP in it’s Monsoon V published on June 6 did say that monsoon onset can happen during the last week of June/first week of July while on June 23 (upgraded the chances of monsoon to ‘extremely high’ on June 26), PWP said that monsoon onset can occur in the northern areas on June 26 (+1, -1 day error), isolated rains started June 25 while monsoon advanced into these areas on June 27.

As of 5:00 pm PKT June 28, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of developing weather systems are shown as;

*On June 22, a low pressure formed over Bay of Bengal and moved in a WNW direction towards Odisha coast on June 24, the next day it lied over North Chhattisgrah. On June 27, it was over south-east Utter Pradesh with some deepening. This low pressure had an encounter with the western trough ’11′ over the north-western areas of Pakistan on June 27 that will cause the low to persist till next two to three days over the some area, the moisture will cross into Nepal and China. The interaction with the western system can cause some thunderstorms to form north-eastern parts of Pakistan on June 28 night/June 29. There is another possibility (only GFS) of a circulation/low forming over the central parts of India that will merge with the monsoon axis over Himalayan ranges over the northern India during the first week of July.

First Monsoon Spell

“Alert:  During this period (June 28 night till June 30 night), isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) can occur in Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Khurram Agency including Parachinar, Abbottabad, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Lahore, Sialkot, Kasur, Sheikhpura and adjoining cities areas. The first spell of monsoon is mostly moderate.”

Islamabad

Rain coverage in the north – above 25 mm seen

Rain with chances of isolated heavy falls can occur in capital from June 28 night till July 1 with intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (>56 km/h).

Day mercury is expected in Islamabad;

• 34°C to 38°C in Islamabad.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (FATA) and Balochistan

Most rain has occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the current spell. Rain with thunder/lightning along with strong winds (>56 km/h) can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.  There are chances of isolated heavy falls in Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Khurram Agency including Parachinar, Abbottabad, Haripur, Manshera. The provincial capital of Balochistan Quetta would remain dry with partly cloudy sky. There are chances of isolated rain in Khuzdar, Kalat, Awaram, Zhob, Musa Khel, Barkhan and few adjoining districts during this period.

Following are the day temperature expected;

• 34°C to 37°C Peshawar.
• 32°C to 36°C Quetta, remains unchanged.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. Rain with chances of isolated heavy falls on June 28 night till July 1 with thunder/lightning and fast to strong winds (>56 km/h). There are chances of isolated heavy falls in Attock, Rawalpindi, Jehlum and few adjoining areas.

Following is the day temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

• 34 °C to 38°C in Lahore.
• 41°C to 45 °C in Faisalabad.
• 21°C to 26°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities are expected to remain dry with passing clouds.  However showers with windy conditions can occur in Dera Ghazi Khan district on June 28/June 29 while isolated shower can occur in Bahawalnagar districts on June 29/June 30. Overall the temperatures are high in this part of Punjab.

In Southern Punjab, day temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

• 40°C to 43°C in Multan.
• 41 °C to 44 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. Mostly dry conditions are expected with increase in clouds during the night in NW parts of upper Sindh. Overall the temperatures are high in this part of Sindh.

Following is the range of day temperatures expected in this part.

• 43°C to 45°C in Sukkur.
• 42°C to 46 °C in Larkana.
• 43°C to 47 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. Mostly dry weather expected with increase in clouds during the night/morning  while there are chances of showers with thunder/lightning in Tharparkar district.

Following are the day temperatures, high temperatures are prevailing in this part of Sindh as well.

• 36°C to 43 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities.  Mostly dry weather expected with cloudy night/morning along with chances of drizzle.

Temperatures have returned to their calm level in the coastal belt.

• 33 °C to 36°C in Karachi.

Second Monsoon spell

The first spell will weaken significantly on July 1 though since the monsoon has advanced into the northern areas therefore the moist-laden winds will prevail with chances of drizzle/isolated showers in few areas of northern areas. The second spell can hit the northern areas during the late first week of July/second week of July. Proper monsoon rains in the central and southern areas of the country are not seen at moment.

People are eager to know when will they get their share of rains! Monsoon mostly advances into Karachi during the mid-week of July.

Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (July 4 – July 12)

• Monsoon rains returning to North!

• South experiences showers

• Mid-week, Monsoon to advance further Pak

Precipitation and Temperature till July 11

Monsoon onset happened on June 27 in the northern areas. PWP in it’s Monsoon V published on June 6 did say that monsoon onset can happen during the last week of June/first week of July while on June 23 (upgraded the chances of monsoon to ‘extremely high’ on June 26), PWP said that monsoon onset can occur in the northern areas on June 26 (+1, -1 day error), isolated rains started June 25 while monsoon advanced into these areas on June 27.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Low pressure over East Rajasthan and adjoining Madya Pradesh.

*Fresh circulation can form in the Bay of Bengal on July 6/July 7.

Recap of the first monsoon spell

The rains were isolated heavy in intensity especially over western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab. Following are the highest rainfall recorded the first monsoon spell (above 40 mm);

• Bannu got 71 mm – Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Rawalpindi got 68 mm – Punjab
• Murree got 65 mm – Punjab
• Kakul got 64 mm – Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Mianwali got 58 mm – Punjab
• Saidusharif got 55 mm – Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Kotli got 53 mm – Azad Kashmir
• Balakot got 53 mm – Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Muzaffarabad got 42 mm – Azad Kashmir

The monsoon spell started from June 25 with weak intensity and gained strength on June 27 and weakened significantly on June 30 though isolated rain continued till July 1. After July 1, temperatures started rising in the some parts of the country. The first monsoon spell was more focused in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to western trough ’11′ however top cloud temperature showed that monsoon moisture played a significant role in the rains.

Second Monsoon spell

On June 28, PWP said that the second spell can occur in the northern areas during the late first week/early second week of July. On July 1, PWP upgraded the chance of second spell at ‘poor’, in the following days it was further upgraded. On July 2, PWP gave the date for the second monsoon spell that was July 7 (+1,-1 day error). On July 3, PWP upgraded the chance to ‘very high’ and the next day it was upgraded the chance to ‘extremely high’.

Northern Areas

“Alert: Chances of isolated very heavy downpour in few areas of NE and adjoining North Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Sheikhpura, Mandi Bahaudin and few adjoining areas) on July 8 till July 10.”

Above 50 mm rain in North

Mostly dry weather expected till July 5 with chances of thundercloud formation near northern Punjab that can being drizzle/showers with thunder/lightning. Second Monsoon spell is expected from July 7 (+1,-1 day error), rain with thunder and lightning along with fast/strong winds can occur in many places of the northern areas. Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur on July 8 till July 10 early in the Northern and North-eastern districts of Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas). During the second spell, 45 mm till 110 mm is being showed in various areas of upper Punjab. Rain with thunder and lightning is also likely in Islamabad especially during July 8 and July 9.

North-western areas of Punjab that is Attock, Sargodha and adjoining areas can also witness rain with thunder and lightning during this period. Rain with thunder/lightning also likely in Azad Kashmir including Muzaffarabad however there are chances of isolated heavy falls in Kotli, Mirpur and adjoining cities of the state.

Rain with thunder and lightning can occur in Peshawar, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi and adjoining districts with chances of isolated heavy falls in Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and lower Peshawar district. The second spell starting from July 7 (+1,-1 day error) can end on July 10 evening/night.

Central Areas

Thunderclouds near Sindh on July 4

Mostly dry weather expected in this part (South Punjab and Northern Balochistan) of the country however there are chances of drizzle/isolated showers with thunder and lightning in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar districts of south Punjab due to the closeness of a thundercloud formation over West Rajasthan. Partly/Mostly cloudy weather can occur in Multan, DG Khan and adjoining areas.

Partly/Mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle in Barkhan, Musa Khel districts of Balochistan while dry with passing clouds in Quetta.

Southern Areas

Thunderstorms due to a circulation associated with low pressure over East Rajasthan and adjoining Madya Pradesh, these thunderclouds would be crossing south Gujarat and adjoining Sindh till next few days. Chances of isolated shower/light rain in Karachi, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Jamshoro, Thatta and adjoining areas. In Balochistan, there are chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Awaran, Khuzdar, Panjgur and adjoinig districts of Balochistan.

Monsoon Advancing into Southern and Central areas?

GFS shows UAC/Low over central India on July 12

Monsoon moisture is continuously penetrating into Sindh while it is weak in South Punjab, monsoon can advance into Sindh and South Punjab during early mid-week of July as a fresh low pressure can bring rains to Sindh on July 13/July 14. PWP will monitor this situation again.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wanted to know your thoughts and by far 160 votes have been casted, 30.6% people believe that monsoon will cover the country by the last week of july while 20% believe that it will happen during the second week of July;

This is a part of Monsoon of Pakistan page

Provincial capitals 2013 June rainfall

Highest rain in the month of June was recorded in Murree – 303.1 mm (average monthly rain is 130 mm). The average rainfall is taken from Hong Kong Observatory (HKO);

• Islamabad got 78 mm (average monthly rain is 62.2 mm)
• Karachi got 22 mm (average monthly rain is 3.9 mm )
• Lahore got 177 mm (average monthly rain is 36.3 mm)
• Peshawar got 17.4 mm (average monthly rain is 7.7 mm)
• Muzaffarabad got 91 mm.
• Quetta did not get measurable rain.

Date of Issue – June 30

June ends with significant rains in Khyber and North Punjab

After three days – Rain coverage weakens over KPK, shifts towards Punjab!

First spell would weaken after night!

Western trough ’11′ now persists over the northern areas of the country. The Low pressure persist over the same area that is East Utter Pradesh. Thunderstorm has formed over NE Balochistan and adjoining south Punjab another over central Balochistan and adjoining Sindh. During the night, a thunderstorm can affect the northern areas of the country, mostly Punjab and Azad Kashmir including Islamabad.

The first spell of monsoon in the northern areas would weaken after tonight, the spell would continue till July 1 with further weakening. Monsoon rains with thunder/lightning along with fast winds can occur Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Faisalabad and adjoining cities), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Abbottabad and adjoining cities) and Azad Kashmir, the rains can last till June 30/July 1 night. During this period, there chances of isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) in Abbottabad, Khurram , Khyber, Orakazi Agency, Landi Kotal, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Lahore, Sialkot and adjoining cities areas. There are chances of isolated rain in Khuzdar, Kalat, Awaram, Zhob, Musa Khel, Barkhan and few adjoining districts of Balochistan during this period. Sindh can witness some clouds during this period especially NW upper parts of Sindh with windy conditions, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar district while chances of drizzle in Sindh coastal strip including Karachi. South Punjab can too witness clouds with chances of showers in Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalnagar district. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Mianwali got 58 mm.
• Jhang got 50 mm.
• Okara got 38 mm.
• Noorpur Thal got 29 mm.
• Mandibahaudin got 25 mm.
• Faisalabad got 23 mm.
• Joharabad got 22 mm.
• Sahiwal got 21 mm.
• Lahore got 17 mm.
• Sargodha got 17 mm.
• Jhelum got 16 mm.
• Sialkot got 8 mm.
• Bahawalnagar got 4 mm. (South Punjab)
• Gujranwala got 3 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjaba got 18 mm.
• Parachinar got 16 mm.
• Kohat got 8 mm.
• D.I Khan got 7 mm.
• Chitral got 2 mm.

Date of Issue – June 29

‘Monsoon rains continue in the north!’

Isolated Heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds in Rawalpindi occurred! 

Western trough ’11′ persists over the north-western areas of the country. The Low pressure persist over the same area that is East Utter Pradesh, monsoon is weak over western India while intensity is weak over the western coast of India. Fresh thundercloud is seen forming over central Balochistan while another over north-eastern Balochistan, this thundercloud is merging with a larger thunderstorm over eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The KPK thunderstorm is moving towards Islamabad, Azad Kashmir and northern Punjab.

Monsoon rains with thunder/lightning along with fast winds can occur Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Faisalabad and adjoining cities), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Abbottabad and adjoining cities) and Azad Kashmir, the rains can last till June 30/July 1 night. During this period, there chances of isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) in Abbottabad, Khurram , Khyber, Orakazi Agency, Landi Kotal, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Lahore, Sialkot and adjoining cities areas. There are chances of isolated rain in Khuzdar, Kalat, Awaram, Zhob, Musa Khel, Barkhan and few adjoining districts of Balochistan during this period. Sindh can witness some clouds during this period especially NW upper parts of Sindh, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar district while chances of drizzle in Sindh coastal strip including Karachi. South Punjab can too witness clouds with chances of showers in Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalnagar district. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 27 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 68 mm.
• Murree got 34 mm.
• Mandi bahauddin got 22 mm.
• Jhelum got 17 mm.
• Sialkot got 8 mm.
• Lahore got 5 mm.
• Khyber Paktunkhwa
• Saidusharif got 55 mm.
• Mallamjabba got 38 mm.
• Kakul got 29 mm.
•  Balakot got 23 mm.
• Kalam got 12 mm.
• Dir got 10 mm (Lower Dir got 5 mm).
• Peshawar got traces.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 7 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 3 mm.
• Rawalkot got 2 mm.
• Balochistan
• Zhob got 11 mm.
• Barkhan got 3 mm.

Date of Issue – June 28

‘Monsoon rains continue in the North – Likely to persist till two to three days’

Most rain falling in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Western trough ’11′ is over the north-western areas of Pakistan, yesterday’s low pressure area over south-east Utter Pradesh is now over east Utter Pradesh, deepening was observed on June 27 night. The low pressure is likely to persist till July 1.

Monsoon rains with thunder/lightning along with fast winds can occur Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Faisalabad and adjoining cities), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Abbottabad and adjoining cities) and Azad Kashmir, the rains can last till June 30/July 1 night. During this period, there chances of isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) in Abbottabad, Khurram , Khyber, Orakazi Agency, Landi Kotal, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Lahore, Sialkot and adjoining cities areas. There are chances of isolated rain in Khuzdar, Kalat, Awaram, Zhob, Musa Khel, Barkhan and few adjoining districts of Balochistan during this period. Sindh can witness some clouds during this period especially NW upper parts of Sindh, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar district while chances of drizzle in Sindh coastal strip including Karachi. South Punjab can too witness clouds with chances of showers in Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalnagar district. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 2 mm.
• Punjab
• Murree got 2 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Bannu got 71 mm.
• Balakot got 16 mm.
• D.I Khan got 7 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 4 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 1 mm.
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 20 mm.
• Khuzdar got 1 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 15 mm.
• Kotli got 1 mm.

Date of Issue – June 27

Monsoon has hit the Northern areas of the country with scattered rains!

More rain expected in the north

Monsoon has advanced into the northern areas of the country on June 27 – Last week of June (predicted in PWP’s Monsoon V) as scattered activity has been observed there with isolated heavy falls, more thunderstorms have formed over the northern areas, approaching Islamabad. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till the morning of June 27;

• Islamabad got 18 mm.
• Punjab
• Murree got 65 mm.
• Chakwal got 24 mm.
• Jhelum got 23 mm.
• Gujranwala got 26 mm.
• Mandibahaudin got 18 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 14 mm.
• Sialkot got 8 mm.
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Bhakkar got 1 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 53 mm.
• Balakot got 47 mm.
• Mangla got 36 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 15 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Kakul got 64 mm.
• Lower Dir got 32 mm.
• Parachinar got 29 mm.
• Balochistan
• Khuzadar got 13 mm.
• Zhob got 5 mm.

Yesterday’s low pressure area over south-east Utter Pradesh and has interacted with the western trough ’11′ over the north-western areas of Pakistan.

From June 27 night, monsoon rains with thunder/lightning along with fast winds can occur Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Faisalabad and adjoining cities), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Abbottabad and adjoining cities) and Azad Kashmir, the rains can last till June 30/July 1 night. During this period, there chances of isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) in Abbottabad, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock and adjoining cities areas. Sindh can witness some clouds during this period, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar district while south Punjab can too witness clouds with chances of showers in Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalnagar district.

Date of Issue – June 26

‘Isolated Rains have hit the North’

Intensity to increase in coming days

Scattered activity required to declare monsoon – Waiting!

Yesterday’s low pressure area over east central India (North Chhattisgarh and adjoining states) has moved in a WNW direction towards south-east Utter Pradesh since a western trough ’11′ is approaching the north-western areas of Pakistan on June 26 night, the low will have difficulty moving westwards. Monsoon has started advancing into the northern areas of the country though weak in intensity, currents to increase from June 27 night  - Last week of June (predicted in Monsoon V).

Tonight chances of rain/showers with fast winds in upper areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Azad Kashmir including Islamabad while dusty conditions can occur in lower central Balochistan and central Punjab. From June 27 night, monsoon rains with thunder/lightning along with fast winds can occur Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Faisalabad and adjoining cities), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Abbottabad and adjoining cities) and Azad Kashmir, the rains can last till three to four days depending when they hit those areas of the country. During this period, there chances of isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) in Abbottabad, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock and adjoining cities areas. Sindh can witness some clouds during this period, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar district while south Punjab can too witness clouds with chances of showers in Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalnagar district. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Sialkot got 7 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 9 mm.
• Rawalkot got 9 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Saidu Sharif got 53 mm.
• Balakot got 53 mm.
• Lower Dir got 29 mm.
• Parachinar got 3 mm.

Date of Issue – June 25

‘Monsoon rains at the door in the North!’

Dry conditions ended – Rain returns

Low pressure area is over east central India (North Chhattisgarh and adjoining states), it could move in a WNW direction while a western trough ’11′ can reach the north-western areas of Pakistan on June 26 night. Monsoon can start advancing into the northern areas of the country on June 26/June 27 – Last week of June (predicted in Monsoon V). PWP upgrades the possibility of rains in the north to ‘extremely high’ from ‘high’.

Tonight chances of isolated showers with fast winds in upper areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Kashmir and adjoining areas of Punjab. Monsoon can start advancing into the northern areas of the country on June 26/June 27 due to which rain with thunder/lightning along with fast winds can occur Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Faisalabad and adjoining cities), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency, Abbottabad and adjoining cities) and Azad Kashmir, the rains can last till three to four days depending when they hit those areas of the country. During this period, there chances of isolated heavy rainfall with strong winds (>56 km/h) in Abbottabad, Haripur, Manshera, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, Attock and adjoining cities areas. Sindh and south Punjab can witness some clouds during this period, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar and Bahawalnagar district of those provinces. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 13 mm.
• Muzafarabad got 5 mm.
• Kotl got 3 mm.

Date of Issue – June 24

‘Rains approaching North!’

Mostly dry weather to continue in the country till one to two days. Thundercloud dissipated over Jammu & Kashmir, another weak thundercloud dissipated over north-eastern and lower Balochistan.

Monsoon has started reviving due to the formation of low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, it could move in a WNW direction. now it lies over Odisha and West Bengal. Monsoon could advance into the northern areas of Pakistan during the last week of June (predicted in Monsoon V) that could be June 26 (+1, -1 day error), therefore PWP upgrades the first spell of monsoon from ’high’ in the northern areas. The rains can start last till three to four days depending when they hit the country during this period moderate rain with thunder/lightning expected in Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Sialkot and adjoining areas. Sindh and south Punjab can witness some clouds during this period, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar and Bahawalnagar district of those provinces.

Date of Issue – June 23

‘Rains approaching North’

Mostly dry weather to continue in the country till two to three days. Two weak thundercloud formed over Jammu & Kashmir, both are moving in a eastern direction. Another formed over central Balochistan while the third formed over north-eastern Balochistan, both have dissipated.

Monsoon has started reviving due to the formation of low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, it could move in a WNW/NW direction. Currently it lies over coastal Odisha. Monsoon could advance into the northern areas of Pakistan during the last week of June (predicted in Monsoon V) that could be June 26 (+1, -1 day error), therefore PWP forecasts the first spell of monsoon from ’moderate’ to ‘high’ in the northern areas. The rains can start last till three to four days depending when they hit the country during this period moderate rain with thunder/lightning expected in Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Sialkot and adjoining areas. Sindh and south Punjab can witness some clouds during this period.

Date of Issue – June 22

Dry weather to continue in the country till three to four days, temperatures are high in some parts of the country. A very weak thundercloud formed over Jammu & Kashmir, it dissipated. Another formed over central Balochistan and adjoining Sindh, it dissipated as it moved in a western direction.

Monsoon has started reviving due to the formation of low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, it could move in a WNW/NW direction. Currently it lies over coastal Odisha. Monsoon could advance into the northern areas of Pakistan during the last week of June (predicted in Monsoon V), therefore PWP forecasts the first spell of monsoon from ‘poor’ to ‘moderate’ in the northern areas.

Date of Issue – June 21

Dry weather to continue in the country till four to five days, temperatures are high in some parts of the country. Monsoon is going to revive due to the formation of a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal in the next 36 to 48 hours as an area of upper air cyclonic circulation lies in east-central Bay of Bengal, it could move in a WNW/NW direction.

Monsoon could advance into the northern areas of Pakistan during the last week of June (predicted in Monsoon V), therefore PWP forecasts the first spell of monsoon to ‘poor’ in the northern areas.

Date of Issue – June 20

Dry weather expected in Pakistan till some days due to the penetration of dry westerlies, temperatures have risen in the some parts of the country. As monsoon weakens over the west coast, heavy rain activity now seen over eastern coast and and north-eastern states of India.

Date of Issue – June 19

Dry weather expected in Pakistan till some days due to the penetration of dry westerlies, temperatures started rising in some parts of the country. Almost whole Pakistan today remained without any major cloud formation however a very weak thundercloud dissipated over north-western Karachi.

Date of Issue – June 18

‘Dry weather to continue’

Upper air cyclonic circulation has formed in the east central Bay of Bengal. Mostly dry weather expected in Pakistan till some days due to the penetration of dry westerlies, temperatures to rise in some parts of the country from tomorrow. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Sialkot got 13 mm
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 6 mm.
• Balakot got 1 mm.
• Gilgit-Baltistan
• Astore got 6 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm.

In Monsoon V published on June 7, PWP mentioned that monsoon could hit the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June/first week of July.

Date of Issue – June 17

Weak western trough ’10′ is over the north-eastern areas of the country and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir, it is would completely  move eastwards on June 18 mid-day, it has dragged the low pressure over North-east Rajasthan in a NNE direction and it has started weakening and lies over the same area as an upper air cyclonic circulation.

Mostly dry weather is expected in Punjab including Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11, weakened significantly on June 15 night though it will end on June 17. On June 17 night, north-eastern areas of Punjab can experience isolated rain with thunder/lightning. From June 18, mostly dry weather is expected till many days. Western winds can dominate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with chances of drizzle/isolated shower in extreme northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan. Temperatures are going to be calm till the middle of this week and after that a increase would start taking place.

On June 17, coastal, SE and few adjoining central Sindh remained under a cloud-cover. There are chances of pre-monsoon drizzle or light rain in the province (especially Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and adjoining areas)till June 18, PWP maintains the chance at ‘moderate’. From June 18 mid-day dry weather could prevail over Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Murree got 23 mm.
• Sialkot got 18 mm.
• Jhelum got 2 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 12 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Peshawar got 14 mm.
• Parachinar got 5 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalkot got 41 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 4 mm.
• Sindh
• Mithi got 1 mm.

Date of Issue – June 16

Weak western trough ’10′ is over the northern areas of the country and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir, it is moving eastwards, it has slightly dragged the low pressure over West Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan in a NNE direction and it has started weakening.

Mostly dry weather is expected in Punjab including Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11, weakened significantly on June 15 night though it will end on June 17. On June 16/June 17, north-eastern areas of Punjab can experience isolated rain with thunder/lightning. From June 18, mostly dry weather is expected till many days. Western winds can dominate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Temperatures are going to be calm till the middle of this week and after that a increase would start taking place. There are chances of drizzle/isolated showers in South Punjab tonight.

There are chances of another pre-monsoon activity in Sindh (not significant), it is weak when compared to the last pre-monsoon activity. PWP upgrades the chance of this spell to ‘moderate’ as weak moisture incursion is taking place in eastern Sindh. This spell has only potential to cause drizzle or light rain in the province (especially Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and adjoining areas) on June 16 till June 18. Some districts like Tharparker, Badin and Thatta can experience isolated moderate rain with thunder/lightning on June 16 night/June 17 morning. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Bhakkar got 23 mm.
• Murree got 7 mm.
• South Punjab
• Multan got 13 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 30 mm.
• Bannu got 21 mm.
• Lower Dir got 16 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalkot got 11 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 10 mm.
• Sindh
• Jacobabad got 52 mm.
• Rohri got 29 mm.
• Sukkur got 28 mm.

Date of Issue – June 15

‘Very heavy rainfall in Lahore as 102 mm rain recorded’

Another spell in Sindh at ‘poor’

14 dead in late night storm in the North

Low pressure over India

Weak western trough ’10′ is over the northern areas of the country and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir. Yesterday’s low pressure over  Chhattisgarh is now over West Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan.

The current pre-monsoon spell in the northern and central areas of the country has weakened significantly, it will continue in the northern areas till June 17 morning while in central areas till June 16. On June 16/June 17, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience rain on June 16/June 17).  South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and adjoining cities) can experience rain/showers on June 15 night/June 16. Chances of isolated rain/showers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Peshawar till June 16/June 17 morning. North-eastern and lower central areas of Balochistan can experience isolated rain till June 17/June 18. From June 18, there is a possibility of long dry conditions in the northern and central areas.

Moisture incursion from the low over central India can cause another pre-monsoon spell in some parts of Sindh (especially Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar, Khairpur and adjoining upper areas) on June 16 till June 18 morning, there are chances of drizzle/light rain therefore PWP upgrades this spell from ‘very poor’ to ‘poor’at the moment. Some parts of eastern and western Sindh saw thunderclouds on June 15 due to the moisture incursion. As predicted by PWP since June 9, widespread pre-monsoon rainfall occurred in the country with very heavy rainfall in NE Punjab especially Lahore. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 18 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 102 mm. (Lahore’s monthly average is 36 mm)
• T.T Singh got 49 mm.
• Mianwali got 43 mm.
• Jhelum got 39 mm.
• Murree got 38 mm.
• Jhang got 30 mm.
• Sialkot got 21 mm.
• Faisalabad got 15 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 14 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalnagar got 18 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Bannu got 09 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalkot got 42 mm.
• Sindh
• Badin got 9 mm.

Monsoon could hit the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June or first week of July which could be early than last years.

Date of Issue – June 14

Very heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in NE Punjab!

Weak western trough ’10′ is over the northern areas of the country. Upper air cyclonic circulations is now over north-western Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab, it has weakened. Well-marked low pressure over central eastern India over the state of southern Odisha has weakened into a low pressure and lies over Chhattisgarh. Monsoon is advancing into western states of India with an unusual fast speed, itset over eastern Rajasthan on June 13, could hit New Delhi on June 18.

The current pre-monsoon spell in the northern and central areas of the country is the last pre-monsoon spell of the season that is expected to last till June 16/June 17. From June 13, rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15).  South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and adjoining cities) can experience rainfalls during this period with thunder/lightning.  Rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience isolated heavy rainfall. In the northern and central, this first pre-monsoon spell might end on June 15 night or June 17 morning.

Slight chances of isolated showers in the eastern parts (Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Sanghar, Khairpur and adjoining areas). Another pre-monsoon spell (last pre-monsoon spell) can hit Sindh on June 16 night/June 17 due to the Bay’s low pressure therefore PWP maintains this spell at ‘very poor’ at the moment. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Bhakker got 60 mm.
• Mianwali got 20 mm.
• Jorabad got 14 mm.
• Murree got 11 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 10 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalnagar got 16 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• D.I Khan got 72 mm.
• Bannu got 26 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalkot got 37 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 24 mm.
• Balochistan
• Pasni got 21 mm.
• Zhob got 20 mm.

Monsoon could hit the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June or first week of July which could be early than last years.

Date of Issue – June 13

Pre-monsoon hits Karachi!

West – East Interaction – Very heavy rainfall possible in North!

Another monsoon spell can approach Sindh

Weak western trough ’10′ is over the north-western areas of the country. Upper air cyclonic circulations from the north Arabian sea now persists over Sindh and adjoining Gujarat, it has weakened. Well-marked low pressure from the Bay of Bengal is over central eastern India over the state of southern Odisha. Monsoon is advancing into western states of India with an unusual fast speed, it has set over eastern Rajasthan, could hit New Delhi on June 18 (10 days ahead).

The current pre-monsoon spell in the northern and central areas of the country is the last pre-monsoon spell of the season that is expected to last till June 16/June 17. From June 13, rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15).  South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and adjoining cities) can experience rainfalls during this period with thunder/lightning.  Rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience isolated heavy rainfall. In the northern and central, this first pre-monsoon spell might end on June 15 night or June 17 morning.

Slight chances of isolated showers in the eastern parts (Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Sanghar, Khairpur and adjoining areas). Another pre-monsoon spell (last pre-monsoon spell) can hit Sindh on June 16 night/June 17 due to the Bay’s low pressure therefore PWP maintains this spell at ‘very poor’ at the moment. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 16 mm.
• Multan got 13 mm.
• Sindh
• Chhor got 47 mm.
• Padidan got 26 mm.
• Mithi and Moen-jo-Daro got 24 mm.
• Karachi got 22 mm (Gulshan-e-Hadeed)
• Nawabshah got 16 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Abbotabad got 38 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 4 mm.
• Balochistan
• Kalat got 4 mm.
• Lasbella got 4 mm.

Monsoon could hit the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June or first week of July which could be early than last years.

Date of Issue – June 12

‘Pre-monsoon has hit whole country from North to South’

Sindh and Balochistan got rain today!

More rain expected!

Weak  Western trough ’10′ have approached the northern areas of the country which could cause interaction between eastern and western winds. Low pressure from the Bay of Bengal is now over Odisha and adjoining Andhra Pradesh, upper air cyclonic circulations over Guajrat and adjoining Sindh. Coastal thunderstorm is moving away into the Arabian sea now. Dissipating thunderclouds over Sindh and adjoining Balochistan and south Punjab. High and mid level clouds over the northern areas. Strong thunderstorm over Makran coast.

On June 13, rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15).  South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and adjoining cities) can experience rainfalls during this period with thunder/lightning.  Rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience isolated heavy rainfall. In the northern and central, this first pre-monsoon spell might end on June 15 night or June 17 morning. In Sindh province including Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Mirpur Khas, Badin, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Larkana, Tharparkar and adjoining cities, on June 13 till June 14 night there are chances of rain at time moderate (heavy in the south-eastern parts of Sindh), from June 16 there are chances of new pre-monsoon spell in Sindh, PWP forecast them at the moment at ‘extremely poor’. Following are the rainfall recorded today;

• Islamabad got 13 mm.
• Punjab
• Murree got 74 mm.
• Joharabad got 70 mm.
• Faisalabad got 60 mm.
• Lahore got 51 mm.
• Chawal got 38 mm.
• Gujranwala got 32 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 15 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 47 mm.
• Multan got 21 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Abbottabad got 23 mm.
• Parachinar got 21 mm.
• D.I Khan got 6 mm.
• Sindh
• Padidan got 60 mm.
• Dadu got 14 mm.
• Badin got 4 mm.
• Karachi got T.R
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 36 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 5 mm.
• Balochistan
• Bharkhan got 6 mm.

In the month of June two spells of rain can occur, one which is currently active and the other during the last weeks of June. Pre-monsoon hit Sindh on June 4, North Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Kashmir on June 11, south Punjab on June 12.

Date of Issue – June 11

Very heavy rainfall can occur in NE Punjab!

Pre-monsoon hits NE Punjab with dust storms and rain – 4 dead

‘Scattered to widespread Pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Pakistan in June’

Scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rain can occur in many parts of the country during this week around June 14 (+2, -2 day error) that will continue till three to four days, northern areas can get rains till early next week. From June 12/June 13 rain can occur in Punjab (North and South) and Sindh.  Rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and adjoining cities) can experience rainfalls during this period with thunder/lightning.  Rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience isolated heavy rainfall. In Sindh province including Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Mirpur Khas, Badin, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Larkana, Tharparkar and adjoining cities, during this period there are chances of rain at time moderate (heavy in the south-eastern parts of Sindh), around June 13/June 14 and chances will remain till two till three days. Rain at times heavy occurred in Punjab including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir while showers occurred in Balochistan. Drizzle with thunder/lightning occurred in eastern south Punjab. Dust storm with rain has killed four people in Lahore. Following are the rainfall recorded today;

• Punjab
• Murree got 41 mm
• Balochistan
• Kalat got 8 mm

Upper air cyclonic circulation over north-eastern Arabian has moved into Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, another lies over Bay of Bengal, it could intensify into a low pressure in 24 to 36 hours. In the month of June two spells of rain can occur, one during the coming week and the other during the last weeks of June. PWP maintains the chance of first pre-monsoon spell at ‘extremely high’ in the north, central and southern areas of the country.

Date of Issue – June 10

Very heavy rainfall can occur in NE Punjab in two to three days!

‘Scattered to widespread Pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Pakistan in June’

Drainage system should be cleaned immediately! 

Scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rain can occur in many parts of the country during this week around June 14 (+2, -2 day error) that will continue till three to four days, northern areas can get rains till early next week. From June 12/June 13 rain can occur in Punjab (North and South) and Sindh.  Rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country including Islamabad and Azad Kashmir. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). South Punjab (Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and adjoining cities) can experience rainfalls during this period with thunder/lightning.  Rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience isolated heavy rainfall. In Sindh province including Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Mirpur Khas, Badin, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Larkana, Tharparkar and adjoining cities, during this period there are chances of rain at time moderate (heavy in the south-eastern parts of Sindh), around June 13/June 14 and chances will remain till two till three days.

In the month of June two spells of rain can occur, one during the coming week and the other during the last weeks of June. PWP maintains the chance of first pre-monsoon spell at ‘extremely high’ in the north, upgrades from ‘high’ to ‘very high’ to ‘extremely high’ in the central and southern areas of the country.

Date of Issue – June 9

Very heavy rainfall can occur in NE Punjab this week!

‘Scattered to widespread Pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Pakistan in June’

Drainage system should be cleaned immediately! 

Scattered to widespread pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Punjab (North and South) including Lahore and Islamabad during the coming week around June 14 (+2, -2 day error) till three to four days. Rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas of the country. North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experienced heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). During this period rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds.In Sindh province including Karachi, during this period there are chances of rain at time moderate (heavy in the south-eastern parts of Sindh), around June 14 (+2, -2 day error) till three to four days depending when they hit.

In the month of June two spells of rain can occur, one during the coming week and the other during the last weeks of June. PWP upgrades the chance of first pre-monsoon spell from ‘high’ to ‘very high’ to ‘extremely high’ in the north, from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ and maintaining that in central and southern areas of the country. Monsoon has further advanced into the western coast of India including Mumbai.

Date of Issue – June 8

‘Scattered to widespread Pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Pakistan in June’

Drainage system should be cleaned immediately! 

Scattered to widespread pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Punjab (North and South) including Lahore and Islamabad during the coming week around June 14 (+2, -2 day error) till three to four days. Rain can be at times heavy with thunder/lightning especially in the northern and north-eastern areas, during this period rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds. In Sindh province including Karachi, during this period there are chances of rain at time moderate (heavy in the south-eastern parts of Sindh). In the month of June two spells of rain can occur, one during the coming week and the other during the last weeks of June.

PWP had mentioned on June 4 the upcoming scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rainfall in the month of June. In Monsoon II article published on May 6, PWP mentioned the upcoming chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and some parts of Punjab. In Monsoon V published on June 7, PWP mentioned that monsoon could hit the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June/first week of July. PWP upgrades the chance of rain spell to ‘high’ in the north, ‘moderate’ in central and southern areas of the country. Monsoon might have hit Mumbai.

Date of Issue – June 7

‘Monsoon makes big gain!’

Monsoon hitting Indian city of Mumbai in 12 to 24 hours. There is a circulation off the coast of western India that is dragging moisture into the Arabian sea and western coast of India. Some high and mid-level clouds have entered Sindh from Gujarat. Chances of pre-monsoon drizzle/isolated showers with lightning eastern coastal Sindh and adjoining SE Sindh.

From June 9, the monsoon coverage in the sub-continent would increase significantly. Two low pressure from the Bay of Bengal can move towards central India, another circulation can form in the North Arabian sea. Monsoon will be very active in the month of June, moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Sindh (including Karachi) and Punjab (including Lahore) during the late midweek and last week of June, eastern & western winds interaction possible during periods of June in upper areas of Pakistan.

Date of Issue – June 6

‘Scattered to widespread Pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Pakistan in June’

Drainage system should be cleaned immediately! 

Upper air cyclonic circulations are over Bay of Bengal, it could move towards central India in coming days. A pre-monsoon thunderstorm is just east of Punjab over Indian Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, western winds are intensifying it, some clouds can form over North-eastern Punjab. Another over Gujarat, its high and mid-level clouds can reach SE Sindh and coastal Sindh during the night. Tomorrow evening, chances of pre-monsoon drizzle with lightning in SE districts of Sindh.

From June 9, the monsoon coverage in the sub-continent would increase significantly. Two low pressure from the Bay of Bengal can move towards central India, another circulation can form in the North Arabian sea. Monsoon will be very active in the month of June, moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Sindh (including Karachi) and Punjab (including Lahore) during the late midweek and last week of June, eastern & western winds interaction possible during periods of June in upper areas of Pakistan.

Date of Issue – June 5

Low pressure hampers monsoon progress – Quick Recovery expected!

Low pressure off the coast of Oman, has moved inland and moved towards UAE and adjoining Saudi Arabia. It has weakened and it could dissipate in 24 to 36 hours. The Low has weakened the monsoon winds prevailing over western coast of India. No thundercloud formed near eastern Sindh today. Due to the low, a weak thundercloud formed over central Balochistan that later moved towards itself. Tomorrow and day after tomorrow the situation can improve.

From June 9, the monsoon coverage in the sub-continent would increase significantly. Two low pressure from the Bay of Bengal can move towards central India, another circulation can form in the North Arabian sea. Monsoon will be very active in the month of June, heavy downpour can occur in Sindh including Karachi while moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Punjab including Lahore during the late midweek and last week of June, eastern & western winds interaction possible during periods of June in upper areas of Pakistan.

Date of Issue – June 4

‘First Pre-monsoon shower occurred in Pakistan – SE Sindh’

‘Scattered to widespread Pre-Monsoon rain can occur in Pakistan in June’

Drainage system should be cleaned immediately! 

Many parts of Sindh witnessed clouds from India

From June 9, the monsoon coverage in the sub-continent would increase significantly. Two low pressure from the Bay of Bengal can move towards central India, another circulation can form in the North Arabian sea. Monsoon will be very active in the month of June, heavy downpour can occur in Sindh including Karachi while moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Punjab including Lahore during the late midweek and last week of June, eastern & western winds interaction possible during periods of June in upper areas of Pakistan.

Western trough ’09′ affecting the northern areas and few adjoining central areas of the country has moved away. There is a low pressure off the coast of Oman, thunderstorms are forming over Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan, during the next 24 hours chances of pre-monsoon drizzle/showers in SE Sindh, some more eastern clouds can reach Sindh coast including Karachi during the night. Today some light pre-monsoon showers did occur in the eastern part of the province.

Date of Issue – June 3

‘First Eastern clouds of 2013 visible from Sindh’

Picture by Abdul Jabbar – First Eastern Clouds visible from Sindh

Weak western trough ’09′ is still passing through the northern areas of the country, chances of drizzle/isolated showers with dust storm there including Islamabad till 12 hours.

Eastern winds are moving into southern parts of Pakistan; High and mid-level clouds were visible in south-eastern Sindh that were coming from Indian state of Gujarat, during the mid-day a thunderstorm formed over coastal Gujarat. During the coming weeks this activity would increase and bulk of clouds can move into Sindh. First good pre-monsoon activity expected during the late mid week of June in Sindh and Punjab.

Date of Issue – June 2

Weak western trough ’09′ is passing through the northern areas of the country, chances of drizzle/isolated showers with dust storm there including Islamabad. The northern and adjoining central parts of the country are still under the influence of western windshowever the southern and adjoining central parts have disturbed winds. High level clouds from India can be visible in south-eastern Sindh in coming days while weak clouds that are forming over southern parts are moving from S to N/NW direction.

Date of Issue – June 1

Upper air cyclonic circulation are over Chhattisgarh, it is likely to weaken but has caused heatwave to break over central India. Monsoon has advanced into the Indian state of Kerala. There are chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and Punjab in the month of June mainly during the middle of June.

In the month of June 2013, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) published a total of 20 articles out of which eight belonged to Portal Interactive:

1. Monsoon Daily Updates – For June 2013
2. Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 28 – July 12)
3. Lenticular Clouds and the skies of Pakistan! (For tourism purpose)
4. Burst of clouds causes ‘Himalayan Tsunami’ !
5. Portal Interactive: Amazing temperature records of Karachi
6. Portal Interactive: Pre-monsoon pictures from Bahawalpur
7. Portal Interactive: First Pre-Monsoon pictures at Karachi
8. Portal Interactive: Rain the month of June
9. Birmingham drooling over Pak-Indo Match!
10. Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 25) – Update from June 16!
11. Portal Interactive: Rings around the Moon!
12. The infamous blood rain – Sky bleeds as red rain falls!
13. Monsoon facing the biggest challenge from its own Ocean!
14. Portal Interactive: List of first Pre-Monsoon rain in south-eastern Sindh
15. Portal Interactive: A Flash Back Down Memory Lane!
16. Storm blasts Peshawar – Scores dead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa!
17. Look back at Past: Pre-Monsoon rains are just around the corner?
18. Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 1 – June 15)
19. Portal Interactive: Cyclone Phet and pictures of Karachi
20. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) – May 2013 in Review!

Article of the Month

1. The infamous blood rain – Sky bleeds as red rain falls!

“This is the sixth article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and it will be followed by many more articles”

‘Monsoon remains strong despite threats?’

Monsoon surrounds the Capital city Islamabad

Pakistan is lashed by rains mainly from July to September from the South-west monsoon. The monsoon reaches Pakistan towards the beginning of July and establishes itself by the middle of the month. The strength of the monsoon current increases from mid or late July; it then remains steady, and starts retreating towards the end of August, though occasionally, it continues to be active even in September. After September the monsoon withdraws from the country. But tropical activity could occur before and after the monsoon, mainly in May till June and then in September till November. Certain events like El-Nino, La-Nina, Positive Indian ocean Dipole, Negative Indian ocean Dipole, Madden-Julian oscillation, the position of Jet Streams etc have an effect on the monsoon season.

Farmers of Sub-continent depend heavily on the monsoon season for its agricultural and water needs. A deficient monsoon has a negative impact on the economy of Pakistan and India as most crops depend upon this rainy season though each other more than hundred people die due to this weather phenomenon.

Past Monsoon over Pakistan

• 2009 Monsoon

Karachi witnessed near record-breaking rain in July

During this year most of Pakistan was going through El-Nino that caused 30% below normal rainfall. Coastal and adjoining South-eastern parts of the Sindh province experienced above normal rainfall. Following are the important features of the 2009 monsoon season;

1. First proper rain in the country experienced on July 18 in the southern parts, isolated activity was observed in the northern areas.
2. The Monsoon’s performance was severely affected El-Nino.
3. 205 mm rain fell in Karachi on July 18 in 24 hours.

• 2010 Monsoon

2010 floods approaching

In 2010, Pakistan saw its worst flooding in its living memory. Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall was observed especially in some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab. A subtropical Jet Stream was too south than it’s normal position over the northern areas as it trapped the rains over upper parts of the country. Following are the important features of the 2010 monsoon season;

1. Pre-monsoon season witnessed tropical cyclone ‘Phet’ in the coastal areas.
2. The Monsoon’s performance was enhanced by La-Nina.
3. 415 mm rain fell in Risalpur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the period of July 27 till July 30.
4. Extremely heavy rains unleashed massive flash floods that started from the northern areas and moved towards the southern areas that killed more than 1,700 people.

• 2011 Monsoon

Sindh sub-merged under rainwater

Monsoon’s performance was normal to moderately above normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab however it was extremely above normal in the Sindh province. Following are the important features of the 2011 monsoon season;

1. Heaviest rainfall was recorded in Sindh province especially eastern parts which exceeded historical records in August and September.
2. 1348 mm rain was observed in Mithi from August till September while the average is more than 100 mm.
3. Late La-Nina conditions were observed in the Pacific Ocean that ended in April 2012.
4. The flooding was responsible for the deaths of 430 people in Sindh.

• 2012 Monsoon

Streets flooded due to mid-night rain in Sialkot

Mostly normal monsoon rains were witnessed in the northern areas of the country while below normal rains occurred in the extreme southern areas of the country. Post-Monsoon season was highly above normal in the upper areas of Sindh province. Following are the main features of the 2012 monsoon season;

1. Probably the first major rain of 2012 monsoon fell in Sialkot, Sialkot (NE Punjab) was soaked by heavy rain in just 7 hours on July 26 as 128 mm rain fell.
2. Late Positive Indian ocean dipole was observed during the last weeks of monsoon.
3. 441 mm rain fell on September 9 in just 36 hours in Jacobababad, Upper Sindh, a 100 year old record was broken in the city. It was a post-monsoon event.

Performance of current Monsoon

In the month of June, rains were mostly normal to slight above normal in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab while normal to below normal in the southern areas;

• 2013 Monsoon

Following are the main features of the 2013 monsoon season;

1. A very active pre-monsoon was observed, Lahore got 102 mm rain on late June 14.
2. Islamabad got 105 mm rain between July 6 and July 7.
3. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole can have an effect on the monsoon season in middle of the season.
4. Neutral ENSO conditions are observed till now, with possibility of weak La-Nina later in the season.
5. Pre-monsoon activity started from June 11, gained peak on June 13 and ended on July 16 night.
6. The first monsoon spell started from June 27 though the isolated activity had started since June 25, the spell lasted till July 1.
7. The second monsoon spell started from July 6 though the isolated activity started from early July 5.
8. The third monsoon spell can start during the mid-week of July in some parts of the country including Karachi.

When will Monsoon start over Karachi?

Karachi’s thunderstorm in August 2006

The monsoon generally reaches Pakistan during the first week of July while Karachi gets hit by monsoon during the second week or mid-week of July (July 15). Following are the dates of first proper rains during the monsoon season in Karachi during the last few years;

• On October 3, 2004 – The city experienced drought-like conditions, the first proper rain occurred due to Cyclone Onil that was about 35 mm.
• On September 10 and September 11, 2005 –   80 mm rain fell in a long spell of much-awaited rains. Before the rain, drought-like conditions were observed in Karachi during the monsoon.
• On July 30, 2006 –  22 mm was recorded however on August 17, 56 mm rain was recorded which was the first torrential rain after 2003.
• On June 21, 2007 – About 40 mm (unconfirmed) rain was recorded while on June 23 a strong windstorm (111 km/h) followed by rain (17 mm), rains continued till June 25 due to Cyclone Yemyin. On June 30, 43/45 mm rain fell with strong gusty winds. On August 10 and August 11, 191 mm rain was recorded in Karachi. On August 22, 81 mm rain was recorded in the metropolis.
• On July 29, 2008 – Proper monsoon rains started from July 29 as 50 mm rain was recorded.
• On July 18, 2009 – 205 mm rain fell in the metropolis in just 24 hours. On August 31, 147 mm rain was recorded in the city.
• On June 6 and June 7, 2010 –  Karachi got 152 mm rain due to Cyclone Phet.  The city experienced an active monsoon season from the first week of July till second week of September.
• On September 11 and September 12, 2011 – The first proper monsoon rain occurred on September 11 till September 12, a total of 140 mm rain was recorded in the city, it was the part of the ongoing flooding rain in Sindh. On July 26, 7 mm rain was recorded, rains also occurred in August.
• On September 5 and September 6, 2012 – The city was experiencing drought-like conditions however on those days 41 mm and 65 mm rain fell respectively.
• On June 13, 2013 – 22 mm rain was recorded in Karachi.

Active rains bring floods India – Rivers flowing high in Pakistan!

Floodwaters engulf India

Early monsoon rains have brought devastating floods in India as the rains were  375% above normal in Uttarakhand state of India while heaviest in 22 years. It is common to see eastern and western weather fronts colliding with each other during the monsoon season that causes cloudburst in some case. Such pattern was responsible for the Indian floods where already the rivers were flowing at high level.

Normally a strong winter season means a weaker summer but the summer of 2013 was little different, high temperatures on a wide scale were observed in Pakistan and adjoining India that continued even in June. The above situation has caused the thick snow cover over the northern areas of both the country to melt at a faster rate thus increasing the river flow. Even before the rains in June in Pakistan, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province witnessed mild river floods that sub-merged nearby houses and buildings, 16 people lost their lives in the province due to rapid increase in river flow.

Is Monsoon tackling all odds? 

Warm eastern waters while cool western waters

As compared to last year in which there was a fear of ‘total collapse’ of monsoon (Repeat of 2009′s monsoon), this year the threat of deficient rains is minimum as compared to last year. The only obstacle in the way of this year’s monsoon remains the negative Indian ocean dipole which can develop during the middle of the monsoon season which can cause decrease in rain activity from mid-week of July till August, a common fear shared by the American, Australian, Japanese and south Korean Weather Agencies.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that neutral conditions would prevail in the Pacific ocean however the above weather agencies have said that there is a 65% probability of formation of La-Nina later in the season which will decrease the effects of negative Indian ocean dipole in the month of September, this can only happen if both of these phenomenons form on their expected time.

Our View on the upcoming season

Rain from July till September – Image from PMD

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s monsoon forecast that was issued on May 6 and was revised on June 6, following is the forecast of PWP;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressures in Bay of Bengal, Monsoon will be very active in the month of June as there is a possibility of pre-monsoon in Sindh and Punjab, moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Punjab (including Lahore) and Sindh (including Karachi) during the late midweek and last week of June due to the weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. Eastern & western winds interaction possible during this period of June and later in the season in upper areas of Pakistan which could lead to heavy rainfall over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well. Monsoon onset in Pakistan can take place in the last weeks of June/first week of July especially in the northern areas of the country. Pakistan can experience near to normal rainfall in June till early July on the wider-scale while normal to below normal rainfall after mid-week of July till August as a whole. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Due to the high possibility of the formation of negative Indian ocean Dipole, rain activity could be significantly hampered from mid-week of July and August, a partial effect of weak La-Nina might be observable later in the monsoon season (which could  weaken the effect of -IOD in September). However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a monsoon season? - Part II
• Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed! - Part III
• Look back at Past: Pre-Monsoon rains are just around the corner? - Part IV
• Monsoon facing the biggest challenge from its own Ocean! - Part V
• Road map for ‘Monsoonistan’ laid: Rains move into Pakistan! - Part VI

TO BE CONTINUED……

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wishes all it’s readers across the world

Ramadan (also called Ramazan) as we all know is the ninth month of the Islamic Calender. Many Arab states, central, eastern Asian states and western countries would observe the first fast (Roza) on July 10 while sub-continent might observe the first fast on July 11, if the moon is not sighted this evening.

Ramadan Monsoon – Moon sighting on July 9

Balochistan is the only part that is free from clouds

The country (northern areas) is in the middle of the second monsoon spell. As per latest satellite image, cloud-cover over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining northern Punjab and Azad Kashmir, thunderstorm over NE Punjab has moved into India. Cloud-cover is seen stretching from SE Sindh till coastal areas including Karachi. Thundercloud is forming near South Punjab’s Dera Ghazi Khan, it may intensify further.

The best place to view the moon would be Balochistan as almost all parts of the province are clear, probably after evening clouds might form in Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Musa Khel, Barkhan district and few adjoining areas of Balochistan.

‘Your sadness is their rating’

TV Drowns – Unethical reporting during disaster

What will happen to you if you lose your house due to a flood? Surely you will feel as if you have lost a part of yourself and there is no future. What will be your reaction when someone asks you at that time, ”How are you feeling after losing your house?, Are you missing your belonging?” and their sole purpose will be to capture your emotions, they might even play a sad song to show your emotions. Most of us would get enraged due to the immature and childish questions from such people, obviously this is no drama but a real disaster!

Such type of reporting is common in the sub-continent where the ratings of a TV Channel are more important than anything else. They don’t care whether you are smiling, crying or even dying , for them emotion means rating.

Worldwide outrage over the video

Flood-victims are not for sitting!

Few weeks back, a video was circulating over the web that showed an Indian reporter covering the recent floods in Uttarakhand. The video shows that the person is sitting over the shoulders of a flood-victim while shouting out loud that the government is no where to be seen and these people are left at the mercy of the floods. The flood-victim who was carrying ‘this’ person was standing in the floodwaters while reporter kept yelling at the government. Why did the reporter sit on the shoulders of the poor flood-victim? because he didn’t want his legs to get wet!

Though on the other hand, the reporter said that the flood-victim offered him this ‘gesture’ so that the reporter can cross the floodwaters since he was the first person of ‘his level’ to come. The reporter has even lashed out at the cameraman as he showed the full footage.

Media doesnt really care!

There are no words to describe this inhuman act of this person. The good news is that India’s News Channel has ‘terminated’ his contract but we all have seen the unethical reporting in the time of disaster so this wont be a last time such things come from the media of Sub-continent. 

• This article has been shared by Zaeem Khalid from Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Everyone remembers the oppressive heat of the year 2005 and the near drought conditions experienced in 2006 in most parts of the country. Remarkably below normal rainfall in 2006 and less than 28 noticeable storms in the twin cities of Rawalpindi/Islamabad left things quite uneventful. But then came the year 2007; initially, the year brought some good rains in the winter and spring had a few impressive dust/thunderstorms. And then the monsoons started to penetrate the country that spiced up the year way more than anyone ever expected especially up in Northern Punjab and Northern parts of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa. (Picture shot at Bahria Town, Rawalpindi, a massive dust/thunderstorm engulfing the twin cities of Rawalpindi/Islamabad. Travelling at 157 km/h (wind speed 85 knots at Chaklala, Rawalpindi (Islamabad Airport)

With an average June came July of 2007, the best year by far, I have seen for thunderstorms that rumble with all their majesty. On 6 July 2007, at 1:35 AM, anyone in Rawalpindi outside can notice a sound that seemed like several loud freight trucks were coming towards you and then the wind storm struck with gusts of 150 km/h (I decided it wasn’t a good idea to be out in the open!).  Things falling and breaking all over! However, as more monsoon winds moved into the country, it alarmed meteorologists that this isn’t the end; the second week of July had 3 more severe thunderstorms accompanied by straight-line wind that could blow you away LITERALLY! Following a very similar pattern of night time thunderstorms on the 8^th, 12^th and 14^th of July, 3 wind storms from westerly direction, each storm capable of dumping 30-75 mm of rain came along with 95, 148, and 139 km/h wind gusts! WOW, was that amazing!!!

Wunderground.com link can show you the conditions here on this link http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/OPRN/2007/7/6/DailyHistory.html

August also had three storms with wind speeds in the hurricane force range, but the cherry on the top was that Rawalpindi/Islamabad received more rain than Murree! Chaklala, Rawalpindi had an accumulation of whooping 1828 mm for the year while Islamabad Zero point weather station recorded 1850mm, I lived in the southern part of town which is relatively drier and calculated a total of 1524 mm rainfall for the year. To this date, the best year for rains, storms and the drama it drags along. Not only did these storms lash out with furry only known to God, but these storms were quite stealthy on timing, as it was hard to predict when a thunderstorm like this would actually strike!

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• Negative Indian ocean Dipole declared!

• Lahore getting frequent rains

• Karachi waiting for it’s turn

Precipitation and Temperature from July 16

Pakistan has turned into Monsoonistan as rains have moved into Pakistan, the only area of the country that continue to get proper rains is the northern areas that since the pre-monsoon activity in June is witnessing healthy amounts of rain while the central and southern areas continue to witness isolated events of rains however during the mid-week of July, some improvement was seen over the country, isolated rains occurred in Sindh and south Punjab while northern areas continued to witness almost daily thundershowers since July 6 though the activity weakened after July 10 before weakening strength on July 15 after a brief gap another monsoon spell is expected in the country.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country.aaa

*Low pressure over West Bengal, Odisha and adjoining Bay of Bengal persists.

*Upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana and adjoining states of India.

Emerging Factors – Effect on Monsoon

Indian Ocean and Dust cloud image

*INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE - U.S Weather Agency since July 10 has declared Negative Indian Ocean dipole in the Indian Ocean while Madden-Julian Oscillation phase is also observed over Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea that can remain even during the third/fourth spell in the country. The sea surface temperature of Pacific ocean shows a slight cooling near the coast of South America which indicates towards weak La-Nina. In June, International weather Agencies hinted the possibility of formation of La-Nina later in the season.

*DUST CLOUD – Strong dust cloud presence over southern, moderate over central while weak over the extreme northern areas. There is no dust cloud cover over the northern areas as per today’s image.

Third Monsoon spell

On July 9, PWP mentioned the chances of third monsoon spell in the northern during the mid-week of July at ‘moderate’ and in coming days it was upgraded to ‘extremely high’, PWP also mentioned chances of monsoon activity in Sindh and south Punjab during the mid-week of July. On July 11, a date of July 15 (+1,-1 day error) was given for third spell in the northern areas. On July 12 night till July 14/July 15, weak monsoon activity was observed in Sindh and south Punjab, following are the total rain recorded for Sindh and South Punjab during that period;

• Mithi got 38 mm.
• Bahawalpur got 25 mm – South Punjab
• Chhor got 10 mm.
• Badin got 14 mm.
• Padidan got 14 mm.
• Thatta got 5 mm.
• Nawabshah got 8 mm.
• Karachi 2.1 mm
• Hyderabad got 1.7 mm

Since the third spell has just started in the northern areas therefore the highest rain recorded during the third spell (July 15 till July 17/July 18) will be given after the spell ends.

North – Rain, rain and rain

Highest 30 mm rain seen in north during 3rd spell as per COLA

This spell which started from July 15 can continue till July 17/July 18. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls).

The third spell which will continue till July 17/July 18 is weaker and isolated when compared to the second spell. 

Central Areas – Missed thunderclouds!

South Punjab despite witnessing almost daily weak thundercloud formation near it, has not reported any traces. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/isolated shower in South Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and adjoining areas).

Due to the advancement of western trough ’13′, north-eastern parts of Balochistan and adjoining south Punjab has witnessed daily formation of thundercloud since July 15, partly/mostly cloudy with chances of Zhob, Musa Khel, Bharkhan, Dera Bugti, Qila Saifullah, Loralai and few adjoining districts of Balochistan.

South – Under cloud cover

Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas,

Chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Lasbella, and few adjoining districts), thundercloud activity for past days has been observed over these areas as well.

Fourth Monsoon spell

Strong thunderstorm activity seen during the 4th spell in North

In PWP’s monsoon update of July 13, it was mentioned that fourth monsoon spell can start after the third spell, the fourth spell has a better coverage. On July 16, PWP gave a date for the fourth monsoon spell in the northern that is July 20 (+1,-1 day error).

During the fourth spell, northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can witness heavy rain with chances of isolated very heavy rain in northern Punjab and adjoining Azad Kashmir while coastal areas & adjoining south-eastern parts of Sindh  and North-eastern Balochistan & parts of south Punjab can witness light showers as per some models, no chances of proper rains yet in Sindh and south Punjab.

• Pakistan Weather Update will be updated once the third monsoon spell ends

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know that;

•  This article is shared by Waseem Ahmed for PWP from Karachi city, Sindh, Pakistan

Given is a ‘quick look’ at the Karachi’s Summer Rains’ 23 years data showing the date, time and amount of First Rain and approx Total Amount of the Rains during that Season. Among those 23 years, Karachi had no Monsoon rain in two years i.e. 1991 & 1993.

Note:

Rainfall amounts are mostly observed/recorded at Naizmabad No. 5, Karachi.

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Outbreak of diseases increases after 2010 floods?

Pakistan’s X-ray:  Diseases on the rise after 2010?

I don’t know whether people know it or not but number of diseases are spreading or re-surfacing in Pakistan since the start of 2013. Four major diseases have been reported by the local Television stations of Pakistan, one of them was declared epidemic while three others are re-surfacing again.

Name of the diseases in Pakistan

Following are the major diseases that are prevailing in the country;

1. Measles
2. Dengue Fever
3. Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV)
4. PAM (Primary Amoebic Meningoencephalitis)

Measles

• In 2013: 290 deaths with 22,680 cases according to WHO

Measles hit Punjab hard – Child being vaccinated

Pakistan is experiencing the worst Measles outbreak since 2008. The increase in Measles outbreak can be contributed to the frequent floods that have been witnessed since 2010. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2012, 310 deaths were reported while 14, 984 cases came forward. This year WHO say that the ‘track is much worse’ than 2012.

After experiencing torrential monsoon rains and floods in 2010, 2011 and 2012, Sindh was the first Pakistani province to report outbreak of Measles in December 2012, almost all deaths were of children who lived in the flood and rain-affected areas according to Asian Human Rights Commission. After Sindh, severe measles outbreak was reported in Punjab province including the provincial capital Lahore with the latest death of a child from Rahim Yar Khan city of Punjab on July 23.

What is Measles?

Measles is also know as Rubeola or Morbilli, it is an infactious viral disease that causes red rash on skin and fever. Children are highly vulnerable to Measles if vaccines are not used. Since 2005, a Measles Vaccine by the name of Measles-Mumps-Rubella-Varicella combo (MMRV Vaccine) is available which is said to have long lasting effect.

Measles Vaccination Worldwide

Symptoms

Following are the symptoms of Measles according to the UK National Health Service;

• Cold-like symptoms.
• Red eyes and sensitivity to light.
• Fever.
• Greyish white spots in the mouth and throat.

Dengue Fever

• In 2013: four deaths with eleven cases according to Daily Times

Aedes Aegypti Mosquito

Pakistan is not been new to Dengue disease but during the last few years it has started spreading rapidly especially during the monsoon season. The first case of Dengue was reported in Karachi in 1994 and after that it has been slowly slowly spreading towards the northern parts of Pakistan. In 2007, a sharp increase in Dengue cases were reported in Pakistan especially in Karachi and that year the diseases rapidly engulfed Lahore city.

Punjab province already experienced a major Dengue Outbreak in 2011, although this year most cases and deaths are coming from Karachi. Dawn Newspaper on July 24 has reported that first Dengue hemorrhagic fever virus was found in the blood of a woman in Lahore with doctors expressing their fear that Dengue fever can return to Punjab later in 2013.

What is Dengue fever? 

Dengue affected countries: Red shows severely affected countries

There are four types of Dengue, with two major types. Since 2007, two types of dengue diseases occurred in Karachi while in 2008, another third type of Dengue disease occurred in Lahore and in 2011 all four types of Dengue fever were present in Punjab province;

1. Dengue fever
2. Dengue hemorrhagic fever

Dengue fever (DF): The symptoms of dengue fever are like severe, flu-like illness. DF usually affects infants, young children and adults. DF is rarely fatal.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF): DHF is a complication of the disease that can be fatal. It usually occurs if you have dengue infection more than once. The symptoms of DHF are similar to DF but the condition of the patient show rapid deterioration 2-5 days after the fever starts. If the disease is not severe, the signs and symptoms decrease after the fever resolves. Patients with severe disease can unexpectedly deteriorate after a few days of fever and develop bleeding from the nose, gums, mouth or in the skin, which leads to purplish bruises. In some of these patients after the fever resolves signs of circulatory failure (low blood pressure or shock) develops which can rapidly progress to severe shock or turn lead to death within 12 to 24 hours.

Symptoms

Following are the symptoms of Dengue fever according to the UK National Health Service;

• Severe headache.
• Pain in eyes.
• Severe aching in your bones and joints.
• Severe muscle pain (myalgia) of the lower back, arms and legs.
• Abdominal pain, feeling sick and being sick.
• Feeling cold.
• Flat red skin rash.
• Facial flushing.
• Loss of appetite.
• Sore throat.
• Abnormal bleeding, blood coming from nose, mouth or during urine.

Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV)

• In 2013: 60 peacocks died in south-eastern Sindh according to Express Tribune

The Beauty of Sindh – No more?

Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) is not new to Pakistan. In 2003, peacocks died from the same disease but at that time authorities took an early action. In February 2011, a milder version of NDV that caused the birds of Thar region to have swollen eyes and loss of appetite. In 2012, a deadly outbreak of Newcastle was observed that killed 300 peacocks in Sindh due to drought conditions in eastern parts of Sindh.

This year 60 peacocks have died in the same areas of Sindh that is experiencing unusual weather since 2011 that is mix of drought and abnormal high rains.

What is Newcastle disease virus (NDV)?

Peacock being vaccinated

The virus is named after the city of United Kingdom as it was first reported in 1926. Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) mostly affects birds that include poultry as well as wild species. Being a bird disease, it spreads rapidly to due migration of wild birds from one place to another due to which outbreaks can occur frequently. Sadly there is no treatment for this disease but effective vaccine may help to reduce the chance of major outbreaks.

Symptoms of NDV

Other than causing seasonal flu-like symptoms or mild eye infection, the Newcastle disease is harmless to human beings. Following are the symptoms of Newcastle disease virus in birds that affects the metabolism and neurological systems of the bird such symptoms disfigures the beauty of Peacock;

• Loss of appetite.
• Coughing.
• Sneezing.
• Diarrhoea.
• Loss of feathers.
• Drooping neck.
• Depression.
• Nausea.
• Whirling and spinning.

PAM (Primary Amoebic Meningoencephalitis)

• In 2013: Two people lost their lives according to Dawn Newspaper

Naegleria fowleri, brain eating parasite

This water-borne disease is confined to Karachi at the moment and it’s first case was reported in 2009 according to the Express Tribune and since 2011 it’s cases are increasing in the metropolis. It is a very rare disease found in some states of U.S and Australia, in 2012, 22 people lost their lives in Karachi few were reported to have recently swam while 13 cases showed that the victims had no history of swimming which made the doctors believe that infection might have occurred due to wudu – وضو (Islamic ritual before Salah) according to Dawn Newspaper.

What is PAM (Primary Amoebic Meningoencephalitis)?

ALERT: Dont let water go in your nose!

It is a water-borne disease, the deadly infection occurs when Naegleria fowleri, an amoeba that is found in rivers, lakes, springs, drinking water networks and poorly chlorinated swimming pools travels into the nose and starts affecting the brain. Drinking waters and Swimming pools should be properly disinfected with recommended percentage of chlorine. Precautions should be especially during wudu.

Symptoms

This infection is very serious, it has 98% fatality rate. Following are the symptoms of Naegleria fowleri according to the CDC;

• Changes in taste and smell.
• Headache.
• Fever.
• Nausea.
• Vomiting.
• Stiff neck.
• Confusion.
• Hallucinations.
• Lack of attention
• Seizures.

People left at the mercy of diseases!

’2011′s Dengue Outbreak, 2012′s Newcastle Outbreak  and 2013′s Measles’s Outbreak’

It is quite disturbing that Pakistan remains under the grip of various diseases with increase in cases after the 2010 floods while the process of vaccination is slow, the reason for re-surfacing of some virus. The International Health Authorities should immediately look into Pakistan’s health care system as the government is taking little interest in the deteriorating situation if the International community does not look into the matter then such infections would only spread, classic example is that of Pakistani Polio virus that was detected in Egypt and Israel. We Pakistanis can only take precautions and spread the information about diseases that can help the Pakistani nation!

In the month of July, PWP published six articles while two were published by Portal Interactive;

1. Abnormality of Weather leaves trail of diseases across Pakistan?
2. Portal Interactive: A Look at the Monsoon or Summer rains Start in Karachi
3. Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (July 16 – July 31) – Updated on July 20
4. Portal Interactive: Meteorologically Melodramatic? The Year 2007!
5. Grow up Media: Shocking video of a flood-victim!
6. Ramadan Mubarak from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)
7. Road map for ‘Monsoonistan’ laid: Rains move into Pakistan!
8. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) – June 2013 in Review!

Article of the month

1. Abnormality of Weather leaves trail of diseases across Pakistan?

This is a part of Monsoon of Pakistan page

Provincial capitals 2013 July rainfall

‘July ends with above average rain in few parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Kashmir’

Highest rain in the month of June was recorded in Islamabad Saidpur – 640 mm (average monthly rain is N/A). The average rainfall is taken from Hong Kong Observatory (HKO);

• Islamabad – Airport got 317 mm (average monthly rain is 305 mm)
• Karachi – Airport got 6.6 mm (average monthly rain is 66 mm)
• Lahore – Airport got 221 mm (average monthly rain is 217.9 mm)
• Peshawar – Airport got 11.8 mm (average monthly rain is 46.1 mm)
• Muzaffarabad got 277.2 mm (average monthly rain is 359.4 mm)
• Quetta got 0.2 mm (average is 16.2 mm)

Date of Issue – July 25

Fifth spell weakens in North – Isolated rain can occur – Sixth spell can bring heavy rains to North

Light to medium intensity rains occurred in south Punjab!

Last days of July – Light to medium intensity rain can move into Sindh

Yesterday’s low pressure over west Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan now lies over north Madya Pradesh and adjoining Utter Pradesh while the upper air cyclonic circulation is south-west of the weather system. Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation in the north-west Bay of Bengal, it has intensified into a low pressure.

The fifth monsoon spell has significantly weakened in the north as expected, partly/mostly cloudy weather expected in the northern areas with chances of showers/rain along with thunder/lightning in one or two areas of upper parts of Punjab (Lahore, Gujrat, Gujranwala and few adjoining areas), Azad Kashmir (Rawalkot, Kotli, Mirpur and adjoining areas) and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Dera Ismail khan, Tank and adjoining South Waziristan) till July 27.  Light to medium intensity showers/rain occurred in south Punjab, chances of light to medium intensity showers/rain persist in south and central parts of Punjab till July 26/July 27 (Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan, Okara, Pak Pattan and few adjoining areas). Slight chances of isolated heavy falls in Bahawalnagar district during that period. Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of showers in parts of Sindh (Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Sukkur, Gotki  and adjoining areas). Passing clouds (increase especially during night/morning) in Karachi, Thatta, Hyderabad and adjoining areas. From July 26/July 27, monsoon focus could extend till southern areas therefore around that time there could chances of light to medium intensity showers/rain with thunder/lightning in Sukkur, Gotki, Sanghar, Khairpur and adjoining areas after that from July 28/July 29 there would be chances of light to medium intensity rain/showers in lower parts of Sindh including Karachi, Thatta and  Badin. Showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts) due to daily formation of clouds that can intensify into thunderclouds.

In the coming week another monsoon spell can start in the northern areas on July 29 (+1,-1 day error) therefore PWP upgrades the chances to ‘very high’.  During the sixth spell, rain with thunder/lightning can occur Islamabad, northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas). Sixth spell has the potential to cause heavy rain in Islamabad, northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country from the fifth spell;

• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 45 mm.
• Punjab
• Noorpur thal got 26 mm.
• Bhakkar got 12 mm.
• Sialkot got 11 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 22 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 21 mm.
• Balakot got 20 mm.
• Peshawar got 5 mm.
• D I Khan got 5 mm.

Date of Issue – July 24

Fifth Monsoon spell hits North with heavy rainfall

Islamabad got 93 mm – Noorpur Thal got 102 mm

Rains shifting towards south Punjab and then to Sindh

Yesterday’s well-marked low pressure has weakened into a low pressure and now lies over is over west Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan while the upper air cyclonic circulation is south-west of the weather system. Another upper air cyclonic circulation has formed in the north-west Bay of Bengal.

The Fifth monsoon spell hit the northern areas on July 24 with 1 day error, first mentioned by PWP on July 20. After 12 to 24 hours, the intensity would decrease in the north and the monsoon focus would shift towards south Punjab. After south Punjab, rains can shift towards Sindh including Karachi.  More rain with thunder/lightning can occur in Islamabad, northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas).  There are chances of isolated heavy falls in northern areas of Punjab and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazi Agency, Kohat, Hangu and adjoining districts) and some parts of Azad Kashmir (Rawalakot, Mirpur, Kotli and adjoining areas) till July 25 mid-day. The fifth spell in the north can last till July 27 though a decrease in it’s intensity is expected from July 25 mid-day. A sixth monsoon spell can start in the northern areas during the coming week, PWP upgrades the chances to‘moderate’. During the fifth spell, chances of rain with moderate falls along with thunder/lightning on July 24 late night/July 25 and July 26 in south and central areas of Punjab (Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan, Okara, Pak Pattan and few adjoining areas). Slight chances of isolated heavy falls in Bahawalnagar district during that period.

Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of showers in parts of Sindh (Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin and adjoining areas). Passing clouds (increase especially during night/morning) in Karachi, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. From July 26/July 27, monsoon focus could extend till southern areas therefore around that time there could chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Sukkur, Gotki, Sanghar, Khairpur and adjoining areas after that from July 28/July 29 there would be chances of rain in lower parts of Sindh including Karachi, Thatta and  Badin. Showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts) due to daily formation of clouds that can intensify into thunderclouds. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 93 mm.
• Punjab
• Noorpul Thal got 102 mm.
• Jhelum got 94 mm.
• Mangla got 83 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 75 mm.
• Gujrat got 75 mm.
• Mianwali got 74 mm.
• Mandibauddin got 67 mm.
• Joharabad got 22 mm.
• Gujranwala got 20 mm.
• Lahore got 17 mm.
• Sialkot got 13 mm.
• Sargodha got 9 mm.
• Murree got 7 mm.
• Jhang got 4 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 71 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 60 mm.
• Abbottabad got 23 mm.
• Balochistan
• Zhob got 2 mm.

Date of Issue – July 23

‘Fifth Monsoon Spell can bring rains to north and central – chance upgraded to extremely high’

Isolated heavy falls cannot be ruled out in the North!

After rains in south Punjab – Sindh including Karachi’s turn can come!

Upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana and adjoining areas persists. Yesterday’s well-marked low pressure is over Odisha while the upper air cyclonic circulation is south-west of the weather system.

The fifth monsoon spell can start in the northern areas on July 25 (+1,-1 day error), PWP upgrades the chances to ‘extremely high’ during that period, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in Islamabad, northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas).  There are chances of isolated heavy falls in northern areas of Punjab and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazi Agency, Kohat, Hangu and adjoining districts) and some parts of Azad Kashmir (Rawalakot, Mirpur, Kotli and adjoining areas). The fifth spell in the north can last till 48 hours depending upon the date they hit, a sixth spell for the north is also seen. During the fifth spell, chances of rain with moderate falls along with thunder/lightning on July 24 late night/July 25 and July 26 in south and central areas of Punjab (Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan, Okara, Pak Pattan and few adjoining areas).

Showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts) due to daily formation of thunderstorm in these areas.Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle/showers in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin and adjoining areas). Passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. From July 26/July 27, monsoon focus could extend till southern areas therefore around that time there could chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Sukkur, Gotki, Sanghar, Khairpur and adjoining areas after that from July 28/July 29 there would be chances of rain in lower parts of Sindh including Karachi. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 39 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 45 mm.
• Lower Dir got 17 mm.
• Kakul got 10 mm.
• Malamjabba got 3 mm.
• Balakot got 4 mm.
• Balochistan
• Khuzdar got 4 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 17 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 16 mm.
• Rawalakot got 4 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 5 mm.

Date of Issue – July 22

‘Fifth Spell – Chance upgraded to high’

Upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana and adjoining areas persists. Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over north Chhatisgarh and adjoining area is now over east Madya Pradesh. Low pressure over the north-west Bay of Bengal persists, it has intensified into a strong well-marked low pressure over the same area.

Fourth spell has ended in the northern areas, partly/mostly cloudy with chances of rain/showers with thunder/lightning  persists in Islamabad, northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir  and few areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa tomorrow. A  fifth spell can start in the northern areas on July 25 (+1,-1 day error) during that period there are chances of rain in the central areas (south Punjab) as well therefore PWP upgrades the chances of fifth spell to ‘high’.

Partly/mostly cloudy in Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan, Okara, Pak Pattan and few adjoining areas of south and central Punjab with chances of light rain/sharp showers during the fifth spell. Mostly dry weather with passing clouds expected in some parts of Sindh however there are chances drizzle/showers in few parts of Sindh (Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas). Passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Karachi, Sukkur, Sanghar, Khairpur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Chances of showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts) persists. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 10 mm.
• Balochistan
• Khuzdar got 10 mm.

Date of Issue – July 21

Alert for further scattered heavy downpour in North taken back!

After severe rains fourth spell weakens – Chance of fifth spell upgraded at ‘moderate’

Chances of rain in central areas this week!

Upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana and adjoining areas. Another upper air cyclonic circulation over north Chhatisgarh and adjoining area. Western system ’14′ is moving eastwards. Low pressure over the north-west Bay of Bengal persists, it can intensify into a well-marked low pressure.

The fourth monsoon spell has weakened early than expected as western system ’14′ has started moving eastwards therefore a decrease in intensity of rains has occurred. Despite the weakening, rain with thunder/lightning can occur late night in Islamabad, northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas). After the fourth spell that can end on July 22/July 23, a fifth spell can start in the northern areas on July 25 (+1,-1 day error) during that period there are chances of rain in the central areas (south Punjab) as well therefore PWP grades the chances of fifth spell to ‘moderate’.

Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/sharp showers in Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan, Okara, Pak Pattan and few adjoining areas of south and central Punjab as there is a large thunderstorm east of south Punjab border. Mostly dry weather with passing clouds expected in some parts of Sindh however there are chances drizzle/showers in few parts of Sindh (Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas), a weak thundercloud is East of Sindh border. Passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Karachi, Sukkur, Sanghar, Khairpur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Chances of showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts) persists. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Dir got 5 mm.
• Punjab
• Bhakkar got 2 mm.
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Sialkot got 1 mm.
• Balochistan
• Zhob got 2 mm.
• Barkhan got 1 mm.

Date of Issue – July 20

Fourth spell hits hard!

Significant rains in upper parts of Pakistan

More scattered heavy downpour likely in North!

Upper air cyclonic circulation over Indian Punjab and adjoining areas persists. Another upper air cyclonic circulation over north-east Madya Pradesh and adjoining area persists. Western system ’14′ lies over the northern areas of the country. Low pressure over the north-west Bay of Bengal.

The fourth monsoon spell has hit the northern areas on July 20 (+1,-1 day error) as predicted in Pakistan Weather Update of July 16. During the fourth spell, rain at times heavy and thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas).  There are chances of isolated very heavy rainfall in northern areas of Punjab and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazi Agency, Kohat and adjoining districts) and some parts of Azad Kashmir (Rawalakot, Mirpur, Kotli and adjoining areas). After the fourth spell that can weaken by July 22/July 23, a fifth spell can occur in the northern areas during the coming week.

Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle/showers in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin and adjoining areas), a weak cloud formation is taking place over Tharparkar district. Passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/showers in Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur ,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining areas of south Punjab. During that period chances of showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts). Thunderstorm over NE Balochistan while a weak wave of thunderclouds has entered south Punjab. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 218 mm.
• Punjab
• Gujranwala got 134 mm.
• Sialkot got 133 mm.
• Gujrat got 67 mm.
• Lahore got 62 mm.
• Jhelum got 54 mm.
• Mangla got 46 mm.
• Murree got 25 mm.
• Chakwal got 18 mm.
• Mandibauddin got 2 mm.
• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 101 mm.
• Kotli got 40 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 25 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Lower Dir got 23 mm.
• Malamjabba got 19 mm.
• Dir got 17 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 16 mm.
• Balakot got 15 mm.
• Kakul got 11 mm.
• Peshawar got T.R

Date of Issue – July 19

‘Chance of fourth spell maintained at extremely high’

Scattered heavy downpour expected in the northern in coming days!

Karachi witnessing drizzle/showers since July 13

Upper air cyclonic circulation over Indian Punjab and adjoining areas. Another upper air cyclonic circulation over north-east Madya Pradesh. Weak western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country is moving eastwards now, another western trough ’14′ can enter the northern areas of the country on July 20. Low pressure has formed in the north-west Bay of Bengal

The fourth monsoon spell can start in the northern areas on July 20 (+1,-1 day error) therefore PWP maintains the chances to ‘extremely high’. During the fourth spell, rain at times heavy and thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas).  There are chances of isolated very heavy rainfall in northern areas of Punjab and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazi Agency, Kohat and adjoining districts) and some parts of Azad Kashmir (Rawalakot, Mirpur, Kotli and adjoining areas)

On July 20/July 21 chances of drizzle/showers in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/showers in Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur ,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining areas. During that period chances of showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts). Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 11 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 3 mm. (Defence Phase 7)
• Punjab
• Murree got 2 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 2 mm.
• Sahiwal got 1 mm.

Date of Issue – July 18

‘Third spell ends – Chance of fourth spell upgraded to extremely high’

Scattered heavy downpour expected in the northern in coming days!

Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over Utter Pradesh persists while yesterday’s low pressure over north-west Bay of Bengal merged with the monsoon trough. Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north-eastern parts of India. Weak western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country is moving eastwards now.

The third monsoon spell in the northern areas has ended, partly/mostly cloudy conditions expected in the northern areas till 12 to 24 hours. After that, the fourth monsoon spell can start in the northern areas on July 20 (+1,-1 day error) therefore PWP upgrades the chances to ‘extremely high’. During the fourth spell, rain at times heavy and thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas).  There are chances of isolated very heavy rainfall in northern areas of Punjab and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazi Agency, Kohat and adjoining districts) and some parts of Azad Kashmir (Rawalakot, Mirpur, Kotli and adjoining areas)

Mostly dry conditions expected in central and southern areas however chances of drizzle/isolated shower persists in coastal areas of Sindh. On July 20/July 21 chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur ,Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining areas. During that period chances of showers/light rain in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts). Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 22 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 32 mm.
• Sialkot got 29 mm.
• Mandibahauddin got 27 mm.
• Mangla got 17 mm.
• Jhelum got 10 mm.
• Gujrat got 9 mm.
• Murree got 8 mm.
• Gujranwala got 5 mm.
• Sialkot got 2 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Kakul got 45 mm.
• Parachina got 4 mm.
• Balakot got 3 mm.
• Risalpur got 1 mm.
• Malamjabba got 1 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 5 mm.
• Kotli got 4 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 4 mm.

Date of Issue – July 17

Significant rain occurred in Risalpur – 101 mm!

Third Monsoon spell weakening – Chance of Fourth spell in North upgraded to ‘very high’ 

Clouds continue to move towards SE Sindh and eastern south Punjab

Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana moves into Utter Pradesh state while yesterday’s low pressure over north-west Bay of Bengal, it now lies over East Madya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh. A fresh but weak western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country.

The third monsoon spell in the northern areas has started weakening, it can continue till July 18. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas).  After the third spell, a fourth spell can start after few days which has better rain coverage in the country. PWP upgrades the chances of fourth spell from ‘high’ to ‘very high’ in the northern areas.

On July 17 night/July 18 morning, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Bahawalnagar, Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining areas as a thundercloud over Rajasthan can move towards eastern parts. Chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts). The western moisture can cause thunderclouds to form over NE Balochistan, adjoining south Punjab and the north-western areas of Pakistan while UAC now over Utter Pradesh can send some thunderclouds to eastern parts of Punjab while the circulation associated with the low pressure can send some clouds towards south-eastern Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 32 mm.
• Punjab
• Mandibuaddin got 36 mm.
• Lahore got 12 mm.
• Mangla got 11 mm.
• Jhelum got 7 mm.
• Okara got 6 mm.
• Chakwal got 4 mm.
• Sialkot got 2 mm.
• Gujranwala got 2 mm.
• Gujrat got 1 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalnagar got 5 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 101 mm.
• Parachinar got 46 mm.
• Dir got 40 mm.
• Chirat got 18 mm.
• Peshawar got 16 mm.
• Mallamjabba got 15 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 9 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 1 mm. (PAF Base)

Date of Issue – July 16

‘Third Monsoon Spell is still active’

Fourth Spell also nearing northern areas – Chances upgraded at high

Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in few parts of Sindh and south Punjab

An upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana now lies over Haryana and adjoining Indian state while yesterday’s low pressure over north-west Bay of Bengal, it now lies over West Bengal, Odisha coast and adjoining Bay of Bengal, it may move into Jharkhand and Chattisgarh. A fresh but weak western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country.

The third monsoon spell continues in the northern areas. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls). The third spell which will continue till July 17/July 18 is weaker and isolated when compared to the second spell. After the third spell, a fourth spell can start after few days which has better rain coverage in the country. PWP upgrades the chances of fourth spell from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ in the northern areas.

PWP drops the chances of weak monsoon activity in south Punjab however on July 11, 25 mm rain was recorded in Bahawalpur city. On July 16 night/early morning, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Bahawalnagar, Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining areas as a thundercloud is NE of south Punjab while another is W of Dera Ghazi Khan. Chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts). The western moisture can cause thunderclouds to form over NE Balochistan, adjoining south Punjab and the north-western areas of Pakistan while UAC now over Haryana can send some thunderclouds to eastern parts of Punjab and weaker version over south-eastern Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 12 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 71 mm.
• Dir got 17 mm.
• Malamjabba got 17 mm.
• Punjab
• Mianwali got 43 mm.
• Lahore got 25 mm.
• Gujrat got 16 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 6 mm.
• Balochistan
• Khuzdar got 10 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kakul got 1 mm.

Date of Issue – July 15

Third spell continues in the northern areas

Thunderclouds near South Punjab – Chances maintained at ‘high’

Chance of Fourth Spell upgraded to ‘moderate’ in North!

An upper air cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan now lies over Haryana while yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over north-west Bay of Bengal has intensified into a low pressure. A fresh but weak western trough ’13′ is over the northern areas of the country.

The third monsoon spell in the northern has started from July 15 (+1,-1 day error) as predicted by PWP on July 9. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls). The third spell which will continue till July 17/July 18 is weaker and isolated when compared to the second spell. After the third spell, a fourth spell can start after few days which has better rain coverage in the country. PWP upgrades the fourth spell at ‘moderate’ in the northern areas.

PWP maintains the chances at ‘high’ in South Punjab. On July 15 night/early morning, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in South Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and adjoining areas), chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai  and few adjoining districts). The western moisture can cause thunderclouds to form over NE Balochistan, adjoining south Punjab and the north-western areas of Pakistan while UAC now over Haryana can send some thunderclouds to eastern parts of Punjab and weaker version over south-eastern Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Islamabad got 46 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 55 mm. (Mirsi Shah Reading)
• Jehlum got 43 mm.
• Mangla got 38 mm.
• Murree got 32 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 22 mm.
• Sialkot 14 mm.
• Gujrat got 6 mm.
• Gujranwala got 6 mm.
• Khyber Paktunkhwa
• Lower Dir got 8 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 5 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 28 mm.
• Rawalkot got 7 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 4 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 2.1 mm (DHA Reading)

Date of Issue – July 14

Monsoon Spell in Sindh loses Steam – Rains to start concentrating over North again

South Punjab is again close in witnessing showers!

Yesterday’s low pressure has dissipated, an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Rajasthan while another has formed over north-west Bay of Bengal. A fresh but weak western trough ’13′ can approach the northern areas of the country on July 15/July 16.

The third monsoon spell in the northern areas can start around July 15 (+1,-1 day error), PWP maintains the chances at ‘extremely high’. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls). The third spell is weaker and isolated when compared to the second spell. After the third spell, a fourth spell can start after few days which has better rain coverage in the country.

The weak monsoon spell in Sindh has further weakened while PWP once again upgrades the chances at ‘high’ in South Punjab. From July 14 night, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin and adjoining areas) while passing clouds (increase during night/morning) in Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in South Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Dera Ghazi Khan and adjoining areas), chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts). An incoming western moisture can cause thunderclouds to form over NE Balochistan, adjoining south Punjab and the north-western areas of Pakistan while UAC over Rajasthan can send some thunderclouds to eastern parts of Punjab and weaker version over south-eastern Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Azad Kashmir
• Balakot got 25 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 1 mm.
• Punjab
• Murree got 15 mm.
• Gujrat got 14 mm.
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Sindh
• Padidan got 14 mm.
• Nawabshah got 7 mm.
• Badin got 5 mm.
• Hyderabad got 1.7 mm.
• Karachi got T.R

Date of Issue – July 13

Weak Monsoon Spell started in Sindh!

Third Monsoon can start in northern areas in few days!

Yesterday’s low pressure is now over East Madya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan and has moved in a WNW direction, according to GFS T547, it can move in NNE direction into Utter Pradesh and weaken. The upper air cyclonic circulation over south-east Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat is moving into Sindh province.

The third monsoon spell in the northern areas can start around July 15 (+1,-1 day error), PWP upgrades the chances at ‘extremely high’. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls). The third spell is weaker and isolated when compared to the second spell. After the third spell, a fourth spell can start after few days which has better rain coverage.

The weak monsoon spell has hit Sindh while PWP still maintains the chances at ‘high’ in South Punjab. From July 12 night/July 13 night (decrease can occur around July 15), chances of isolated shower/light rain in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas), chances of drizzle/isolated shower in South Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari and adjoining areas), chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts).  Cloud-mass from Low pressure’s circulation is causing moisture incursion over the southern and central areas of the country. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Sindh
• Mithi got 38 mm.
• Chhor got 10 mm.
• Badin got 9 mm.
• Thatta got 5 mm.
• Nawabshah got 1 mm.
• Karachi T.R
• Balochistan
• Sibbi got 10 mm.
• Lasbella got 4 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 13 mm.
• Sialkot 2 mm.

Date of Issue – July 12

A weak spell is near Sindh after few days rains to return in North 

Clouds crossing into Sindh – reports of showers!

Yesterday’s well-marked low pressure has rapidly moved inland and now lies over east Madya Pradesh. It may curve in a ENE/NNE direction towards Utter Pradesh, south Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand and weaken.

The third monsoon spell in the northern areas can start around July 15 (+1,-1 day error), PWP maintains the chances at ‘very high’. During that period, chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Islamabad,  north-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas with chances of isolated heavy falls). The third spell is weaker when compared to the second spell.

PWP upgrades the chances of spell in Sindh and south Punjab to ‘high’ though the intensity is very weak. From July 12 night/July 13 night, chances of isolated shower/light rain in parts of Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Badin, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur, Gotki and adjoining areas), chances of drizzle/isolated shower in South Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari and adjoining areas), chances of showers in parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Lasbella, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts).  Cloud-mass from Low pressure’s circulation is causing moisture incursion over the southern and central areas of the country. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Punjab
• Sargodha got 30 mm.
• Lahore got 27 mm.
• Sahiwal got 2 mm.
• Sialkot got 9 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 25 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 20 mm.
• Sibbi got 9 mm.
• Lasbela 4 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Balakot got 28 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm.
• Kotli got 2 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Parachinar got 19 mm.
• Abbottabad got 2 mm.

Date of Issue – July 11

Weak cloud formation in various parts of the country!

Third Monsoon spell is eyeing northern areas in coming days

Western trough ’12′ now lies over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining northern Pakistan. Yesterday’s low pressure has further intensified into a well-marked low pressure over Odisha coast and adjoining northern Andhra Pradesh and Bay of Bengal. It could move towards eastern Madya Pradesh and Chhattisgrah and by July 13/July 14 it may curve in a ENE/NNE direction towards Utter Pradesh, south Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand. The third monsoon spell in the northern areas can start during the mid-week of July that could be July 15 (+1,-1 day error), PWP upgrades the chances there from ’high’ to ’very high’.  PWP maintains the chances at ‘moderate’ in central and southern parts.

Monsoon activity has weakened over the northern areas. High and mid-level clouds are over south-eastern and coastal Sindh, north-eastern and lower central Balochistan. eastern south Punjab and northern Punjab while another seen over central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. High and mid-level clouds also over Gilgit-Baltistan. Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in north-eastern Balochistan, coastal & south-eastern Sindh and central parts of Punjab. Dissipating cloud formation is seen over Landi Kotal, Peshawar, Nowshera and adjoining areas of Punjab that include Mianwali, Attock and few other surrounding areas. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Punjab
• Sialkot got 9 mm.
• Jhelum got 2 mm.
• Gujranwala got 2 mm.
• Lahore got 2 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 67 mm.
• Balakot got 28 mm.
• Parachinar got 19 mm.
• Abbottabad got 2 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm.
• Kotli got 2 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 20 mm.

Date of Issue – July 10

Second spell has weakened

Third Monsoon Spell also approaching the country in few days

Western trough ’12′ now lies over the north-eastern parts of the country, it is moving into Jammu & Kashmir. Yesterday’s Upper air cyclonic circulation has intensified into a low pressure over Odisha and adjoining Bay of Bengal. Circulation over Haryana move towards Utter Pradesh. The third monsoon spell can start during the mid-week of July in some parts of the country, PWP upgrades the chances from ’moderate’ to ’high’ in the northern areas while maintains it at ‘moderate’ in central and southern areas.

The second monsoon spell in the northern areas has weakened significantly, rain/showers with thunder/lightning can occur in during late night/early morning in Islamabad, NE and north Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi, Murree, Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas), parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat and few adjoining districts)  and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas) till July 11 mid-day. Chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Karachi, Thatta, Badin and Tharparkar district. While mostly cloudy with chances of drizzle along with windy conditions in some parts of south and lower parts of northern Punjab (Dera Ghazi Khan, Layyah, Bhakkar, Muzaffargarh and few adjoining areas). North-eastern and lower central Balochistan can witness clouds.  Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Islamabad got 46 mm.
• Punjab
• Gujranwala got 95 mm
• Mandibauddin got 56 mm.
• Jhang got 54 mm.
• Noorpur Thal got 48 mm.
• Lahore got 36 mm.
• Mangla got 29 mm.
• Chakwal got 26 mm.
• Jhelum got 20 mm.
• Sialkot got 16 mm.
• Bhakkar got 8 mm.
• Murree got 6 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 67 mm.
• Parachinar got 36 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 21 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 9 mm.
• Kotli got 6 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 8 mm.
• Zhob got 4 mm.

Date of Issue – July 9

Second Spell continues – More heavy rain possible!

The spell to weaken from July 10 evening/night

Western trough ’12′ is over the northern areas of the country, it is moving north-eastwards/eastwards. Upper air cyclonic circulation over eastern central coast of India and adjoining Bay of Bengal, it can move in a W/NW direction. The third monsoon spell can start during the mid-week of July in some parts of the country, PWP upgrades the chances to ‘moderate’.

Under the influence of second monsoon spell, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in during late night/early morning in Islamabad, NE and north Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas), parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat and few adjoining districts)  and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas). Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur in north-eastern and northern areas of Punjab from July 8 till July 10.

Moist winds have slightly weakened over south Punjab and Sindh. During late night/early morning, there are chances of drizzle/showers in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Karachi, Thatta, Badin and few adjoining areas of Sindh.  Thunderclouds is near western south Punjab therefore chances of drizzle/isolated showers with gusty winds in Dera Ghazi Khan, Bhakkar, Layyah and few adjoining district till six hours. Partly/mostly cloudy conditions in Khuzdar, Awaran Barkhan, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts of Balochistan. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Islamabad got 58 mm.
• Punjab
• Mandibahaudin got 88 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 55 mm.
• Chakwal got 45 mm.
• Gujranwala got 44 mm.
• Mianwali got 25 mm.
• Joharabad got 16 mm.
• Lahore got 8 mm.
• Jhelum got 7 mm.
• Murree got 7 mm.
• Sialkot got 7 mm.
• Sargodha got 5 mm.
• Okara got 1 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Risalpur got 65 mm.
• Parachinar got 27 mm.
• Lower Dir got 15 mm.
• Abbottabad got 12 mm.
• Balakot got 8 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 7 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 54 mm.
• Mangla got 30 mm.
• Rawalakot got 6 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 0.1 mm.

Date of Issue – July 8

‘Second Monsoon spell has gripped the northern areas – Heavy rain is possible!’

Rain in many areas of Azad Kashmir, Punjab and Khyber!

Western trough ’12′ is over the northern areas of the country. Weak Upper air cyclonic circulation persists over south-west Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan is becoming unimportant. Upper air cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal states of India.

Under the influence of second monsoon spell, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in Islamabad, NE and north Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas), parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat and few adjoining districts)  and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas). Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur in north-eastern and northern areas of Punjab from July 8 till July 10.

During this time period, there are chances of drizzle/showers in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Karachi, Thatta, Badin and few adjoining areas of Sindh. Partly/mostly cloudy in Sukkur, Sanghar, Khairpur and Gotki districts. Moist winds are prevailing over south Punjab (drizzle/showers can occur in Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar district) and other areas of Punjab like Pak Pattan, Sahiwal, Okara and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Khuzdar, Awaran Barkhan, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts of Balochistan.  Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Islamabad got 27 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 52 mm.
• Lahore got 31 mm.
• Murree got 25 mm.
• Sargodha got 22 mm.
• Gujarat got 22 mm.
• Mandibahaudin got 15 mm.
• Chakwal got 14 mm.
• Sialkot got 13 mm.
• Gujranwala got 2 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 63 mm.
• Kakul got 45 mm.
• Balakot got 13 mm.
• Saidu Sharif got 10 mm.
• Risalpur got 7 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 35 mm.
• Rawalakot got 29 mm.
• Kotli got 10 mm.
• Parachinar got 2 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 2 mm.

Date of Issue – July 7

‘Very heavy rain in Islamabad – 105 mm recorded’

Second spell to continue till July 10

Weak Upper air cyclonic circulation persists over south-west Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan, it could persist till early coming week, another lies over western sector of the Bay of Bengal.

Under the influence of second monsoon spell, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in Islamabad, NE and north Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas), parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat and few adjoining districts)  and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas). Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur in north-eastern and northern areas of Punjab from July 7 night/July 8.

During this time period, there are chances of drizzle/showers in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Sukkur, Gotki  and few adjoining districts of Sindh while from July 8 there are chances of showers in Karachi and Thatta again. Increase in clouds with moist winds in south Punjab (drizzle/showers can occur in Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar district) and other areas of Punjab like Pak Pattan, Sahiwal, Okara and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Khuzdar, Awaran Barkhan, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts of Balochistan. During the mid-week of July there are chances of third monsoon spell in the upper parts of the country including Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Islamabad got 105 mm.
• Punjab
• Chakwal got 62 mm.
• Lahore got 49 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 38 mm.
• Gujranwala got 33 mm.
• Sargodha got 28 mm.
• Mandibahaudin got 15 mm.
• Jhelum got 7 mm.
• Mianwali got 2 mm.
• Murree got 2 mm.
• Sialkot got 2 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 38 mm.
• Kotli got 2 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Saidu Sharif got 25 mm.
• Lower Dir got 23 mm.
• Malamjabba got 18 mm.
• Mangla got 11 mm.
• Balakot got 10 mm.

Date of Issue – July 6

Heavy rain lashes Sialkot – 80 mm rain recorded!

Second monsoon spell advances into north Pakistan!

Rain coverage to increase on July 7

Upper air cyclonic circulation is now over south-west Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan, it has weakened and may persist till some more days, another lies over western sector of the Bay of Bengal. Second Monsoon spell has hit the upper areas of Pakistan with -1 day error that was first mentioned by PWP in it’s weather update article on June 28, on July 7 further advancement is expected. Monsoon rains can advance into Sindh and South Punjab during early mid-week of July as a fresh low pressure can bring rains to Sindh on July 13/July 14, less probability for South Punjab. Some advancement was seen in eastern Sindh on July 4 while slight advance in eastern south Punjab on July 6.

Thundercloud that formed over Awaran district of Balochistan is dissipating over Panjgur. Thunderstorm dissipating over Punjab, another dissipating over north-eastern Balochistan. Fresh thundercloud forming over upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under that influence rain with thunder/lightning can occur in Islamabad, NE and north Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas), parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat and few adjoining districts)  and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas). Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur in north-eastern and northern areas of Punjab from July 7 night/July 8.

During this time period, there are chances of showers in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Sukkur, Gotki  and few adjoining districts of Sindh while during the coming week there are chances of showers in Karachi and Thatta again. Increase in clouds with moist winds in south Punjab (drizzle/showers can occur in Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar district) and other areas of Punjab like Pak Pattan, Sahiwal, Okara and adjoining areas. Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Khuzdar, Awaran Barkhan, Musa Khel and few adjoining districts of Balochistan. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Punjab
• Sialkot got 80 mm.
• Pattan got 42 mm.
• Lahore got 8 mm.
• Murree got 7 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad fgot 13 mm.
• Kotli got 9 mm.
• Rawalkot got 5 mm.
• Sindh
• Mithi got 10 mm.

Date of Issue – July 5

‘Second monsoon in North – Chance maintained at ‘extremely high”

Showers recorded in Sindh

Isolated activity continues in south and North

Yesterday’s low pressure over East Rajasthan and adjoining Madya Pradesh has merged with the monsoon axis of monsoon while an upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh & Rajasthan has weakened. Fresh circulation in the Bay of Bengal can form on July 6 or July 7. Second Monsoon spell in the north can start on July 7 (+1, -1 day error) therefore PWP maintains the chance of second spell in the northern areas at ’extremely high’. Monsoon rains can advance into Sindh and South Punjab during early mid-week of July as a fresh low pressure can bring rains to Sindh on July 13/July 14, less probability for South Punjab .

Thunderclouds are forming over the southern and north-eastern areas of the country, under that influence chances of isolated showers in few areas of NE Punjab as a thundercloud is just east of the area, Norwal, Sialkot, Lahore, Sheikhpura and few adjoining areas during the night. Chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan districts of South Punjab as a thundercloud is east and south of the area. Chances of isolated shower/light rain in Sukkur, Gotki, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin and few adjoining districts of Sindh as thundercloud is coming from Rajasthan while chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Karachi and Thatta. Partly/mostly cloudy conditions with chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Khuzdar and Awaran districts of Balochistan. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Punjab
• Mandibahaudin got 13 mm.
• Lahore got 5 mm.
• Jhelum got 1 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 2 mm.
• Rawalakot got 1 mm.
• Sindh
• Mirpurkhas got 22 mm.
• Chhore got 8.4 mm.
• Chachro got 5 mm.
• Nagerparkar got 5 mm.

Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur on July 8 till July 10 early in the Northern and North-eastern districts of Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas). Rain with thunder/lightning is also likely in Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas) especially during July 8 and July 9. During this time period, the chances of showers will persist Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Karachi, Thatta, Jamshoro  and few adjoining districts of Sindh . Increase in clouds with moist winds in south Punjab (drizzle/showers can occur in Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar district).

Date of Issue – July 4

Second Monsoon Spell – Chance upgraded at ‘extremely high’

Heavy rainfall can occur in Upper Punjab in few days!

Sindh witness showers!

Yesterday’s low pressure over Madya Pradesh now lies over East Rajasthan and adjoining Madya Pradesh with an upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat. Second Monsoon spell in the north can start on July 7 (+1, -1 day error) ]therefore PWP upgrades the chance of second spell in the northern areas from ’very’ to ’extremely high’. 

Mostly dry weather expected in the country till July 5, chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar districts of South Punjab as weak thundercloud can form over West Rajasthan. Chances of isolated shower/light rain in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Karachi, Thatta, Jamshoro  and few adjoining districts of Sindh as thunderstorms from Guajrat are moving towards Eastern Sindh. Chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Khuzdar and Awaran districts of Balochistan. Passing clouds over NE Punjab with chances of evening drizzle/showers on July 5. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Azad Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 4 mm.
• Punjab
• Sargodha got 2 mm.
• Mandi Bahauddin got 1 mm.

Rain at times heavy (isolated very heavy in few areas) can occur on July 8 till July 10 early in the Northern and North-eastern districts of Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sheikhpura, Rawalpindi (including Murree city), Jhelum, Gujarat, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining areas). Rain with thunder/lightning is also likely in Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency, Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur and few adjoining areas) especially during July 8 and July 9. During this time period, the chances of showers will persist Tharparkar, Umerkot, Sanghar, Khairpur, Badin, Karachi, Thatta, Jamshoro  and few adjoining districts of Sindh . Increase in clouds with moist winds in south Punjab (drizzle/showers can occur in Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar district).

Date of Issue – July 3

‘Monsoon reviving as low shifts towards Central India’

Second monsoon spell in North at ‘very high’

Clouds crossing Indo-Pak coast towards Oman

Clouds East of Sindh and south Punjab – Image from Weather Channel

Yesterday’s low pressure over north-east Madya Pradesh and adjoining Chhatisgrah now lies over  Madya Pradesh, cluster of thunderstorms are seen moving towards Gujarat, Rajasthan and adjoining Indian coast in a SSW direction. After many days, the cloud activity has been observed near Sindh and adjoining south Punjab. Clouds are seen moving from Indian and adjoining Sindh coast towards Oman, last time it was observed during the pre-monsoon spell.

Mostly dry weather expected in the country, chances of drizzle/isolated showers in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar districts of South Punjab as weak thundercloud is forming nearby. Passing clouds in South-eastern Sindh with chances of drizzle/isolated showers as weak thundercloud can cross during the night. Chances of drizzle in the coastal areas of Sindh.

Second monsoon spell can start early from the second week of July that is July 7  with -1, +1 day error therefore PWP upgrades the chance of second spell in the northern areas from ’high’ to ’very high’. During this time period, showers can occur in SE and coastal Sindh including Karachi. Increase in clouds with moist winds in south Punjab (drizzle/showers can occur in Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar district). Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 9 mm.
• Dir got 4 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 4 mm.

Date of Issue – July 2

2nd Monsoon spell in North – at ‘high’

‘Monsoon gaining strength’

Western trough ’11′  lies over Jammu & Kashmir. The Low pressure over Utter Pradesh has retracted and now lies over north-east Madya Pradesh and adjoining Chhatisgarh. Second monsoon spell can start early from the second week of July that is July 7  with -1, +1 day error therefore PWP upgrades the second spell in the northern areas from ’poor’ to ’moderate’ to ’high’. During this time period, showers can occur in SE and coastal Sindh as well. Increase in clouds with moist winds in south Punjab.

Mostly dry weather expected in the country during the next few days (till this week) however thundercloud forming over Indian Punjab and adjoining Rajasthan can bring showers with thunder/lightning in NE Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat and adjoining cities). Thundercloud forming over Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan can enter SE Sindh (Tharparker district and adjoining areas) as a dissipating thundercloud therefore it can bring drizzle/isolated showers with thunder/lightning in that area while chances of drizzle in coastal strip. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 20 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Malamjabba got 19 mm.
• Parachinar got 13 mm.
• D.I.Khan got 12 mm.
• Sindh
• Dadu got 12 mm.
• Karachi and Jacobabad got T.R

Date of Issue – July 1

First Monsoon spell has mostly ended!

Dry weather can return after tonight

Second spell for the north after some days

Western trough ’11′ is now over the north-eastern areas of the country, lies over Jammu & Kashmir. The Low pressure persists over the same area, Utter Pradesh. The first spell of monsoon in the northern areas has weakened in the northern areas though it is expected to continue till tonight after that it will be in dissipating stages.

Thunderclouds forming over central Balochistan (movement NNE), this thundercloud can cause windy conditions in NW Sindh with chances of showers in Jacobabad , Shikarpur, Larkana and Shahdadkot districts till night, there are some chances of showers in Tharparkar district while chances of drizzle in Sindh coastal strip including Karachi. Another thundercloud over lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (movement ENE), it did slightly intensify before losing its strength, it’s high and mid-level clouds have reached adjoining Punjab. Showers/Isolated rains along with fast winds can occur Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Khyber Agency, Landi Kotal, Orakzai Agency and few adjoining areas) till evening/night.  There are chances of isolated rain in Khuzdar, Kalat, Awaram, Zhob, Musa Khel, Barkhan and few adjoining districts of Balochistan during this period. Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Gujrat, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Faisalabad and adjoining cities) can experience increase in clouds during the evening/night. South Punjab can too witness clouds with chances of showers in Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalnagar district. Second monsoon spell can start from the second week of July therefore PWP forecasts the second spell in the north to ‘poor’. Following is the amount of rainfall in the country;

• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 42 mm.
• Rawalakot got 6 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Balakot got 35 mm.
• Parachinar got 26 mm.
• Malamjabba got 19 mm.
• Dir got 12 mm.
• Balochistan
• Lasbella got 17 mm.
• Barkhan got 4 mm.
• Quetta got T.R
• Sindh
• Karachi got T.R

‘Almost every year Monsoon brings Karachi to standstill’

During Storm and After Storm – Courtesy Twitter

People who say that it doesnt rain much in Karachi should change their view because when it rains it pours as if there is no tomorrow though the number of days of rain is indeed less in the metropolis. Karachi lie in the monsoon season so its not surprising to see torrential rains here or streets getting flooded during the summer season which is quite common in the Indian sub-continent.  The mega city Karachi was once again brought to it’s knee when typical monsoon rain started in the city on August 3  morning and continued till evening in some parts.

What caused the rain?

Karachi experienced it’s first monsoon deluge of the year due to the remnants of a tropical depression BOB 03 that formed in the Bay of Bengal on July 30 and traveled all the way from eastern India to central India and then to southern Pakistan.

On August 3, remnants lied over eastern Sindh and adjoining states of India as an upper air cyclonic circulation (weaker than a low pressure – extremely weak than a depression). Despite being an UAC it brought above 50 mm rain to many cities of Sindh. On August 4, the UAC further weakened and moved into Balochistan.

Main features of the August 3′s weather

Following are the main features of the August 3′s weather;

• Winds: Highest winds were 40 km/h though they can be much higher in North parts of Karachi.
• Winds direction: During the whole day, wind direction kept changing direction – WSW, NE, ESE, SE, NW.
• Rain Quantity: 136 mm (5.3 inches) in North Karachi, 74 mm (2.9 inches) in DHA (south) Karachi.
• Duration of rain: The rain started from 10:00 am PKT and lasted till 10:30 pm PKT.
• Humidity: The highest humidity was 94%.

Storm leaves death and destruction

According to government sources, 8 people have been reported dead due to the rain-related incidents while major roads of the city have witnessed heavy flooding. TV Footage shows cars overturned in some areas of the city due to the power of floodwater.

Flash flooding has left 38 people dead in Pakistan province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Every year more than 100 people die due to the monsoon season in the Indian sub-continent.

More rain coming?

On August 4, parts of Karachi again experienced moderate to isolated heavy rain during the early hours of the day but the good news is that the current spell is over and there are no chances of moderate to heavy rain till few days. The authorities should immediately clean the flood water as new rains can come to Karachi in few days, fresh weather system is forming in the Bay of Bengal. More rains can occur in the metropolis during the coming week that is August 8/August 9, update will be given if necessary. Will Karachi survive the next rain?