Save your country instead of criticizing it!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) urges it’s readers to vote for their respective parties in the upcoming elections. PWP will give special weather updates before the elections.

“This is the second article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and it will be followed by many more articles”

Heavy non-Monsoon rains in April in Karachi

The country especially the southern parts have seen one of the most unusual winter of all time. It would not be wrong to say that it was the most wettest winter for the southern areas as every month brought heavy downpour along with it. This unusual trend started from the month of December last year and continued till the month of April.

What was supposed to be dry, was wet!

Monsoon clouds hover over Pakistani city

Take the port city of Karachi for instance, the city mostly remains dry apart from the brief shower that occur in the winter season but unusually this year it rained heavily, it hailed, it thundered fiercely every month while the temperatures were low. The rains resembled as if it was a monsoon season. Following are the stats of the unusual rains in Karachi and it’s various areas;

• December 13, 2012: Early morning Heavy thunder downpour with gusty winds especially in southern parts. 32 mm rainfall recorded.
• December 15, 2012: Brief shower in the north. Traces reported.
• January 15: Drizzle at night in south-eastern areas. Traces reported.
• January 17: Light shower in North-western areas. Traces reported.
• February 4: Heavy thunder downpour  along with hail, rain occurred in the south-eastern parts while hail occurred in the northern areas. The highest rainfall was 32 mm.
• February 15: Thunder rainfall with hail, hail occurred in the western and central parts. A total of 14 mm rainfall was recorded.
• February 23: Drizzle occurred, traces were reported.
• March 6: Drizzle occurred in the North-western areas of the city.
• March 27: Heavy thunder downpour at night, the rain was intense in the southern areas of the city. A total of 32 mm rainfall was recorded.
• April 2: Rain with thunder/lightening along with dust storm occurred in the city at night. 13 mm rainfall was recorded, hail occurred in the north-eastern areas.
• April 8: Rain at times heavy with thunder occurred in the city, light showers occurred in the eastern areas. 28 mm rainfall was recorded.
• April 22: Very heavy thunder downpour occurred across the city with strong winds and hail. 41 mm rainfall was recorded.
• April 23: Drizzle occurred in the city. Traces were reported.
• April 24: Drizzle occurred in the city.

The average rainfall of Karachi from the month of December till April is only 27.7 mm however this time it got 192 mm rainfall. Karachi’s average monsoon rainfall from the month of June till September is 136.5 mm, so if those rains occurred in the monsoon season then we already have a near monsoon rain.

Home of Pakistani drought – Balochistan

Heavy torrential rainfall had lashed Makran coast during the past months including Gwadar causing the death of five people, heavy flooding occurred in Gwadar and Kech district where shops were submerged under storm water while several walls had collapsed. It had been said that 20 years old year record of hailstorm has been broken in north-western areas of Balochistan, the storm caused the death of 5 people.

The province of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa received near normal winter/spring rains.

Will the upcoming monsoon season be affected?

Normally it is believed that wet winter season means a dry summer season but it is not necessary. In the 21st century that is 2003 and 2006, overall a wet winter season was seen across the country followed by a similar wet summer season. Still there is a high probability that monsoon season might be affected as the heating trend before the summer season is a must. The heating trend of 2013 started from the first week of May and temperatures returned to their normal position.  Lets see the year 2013 now!

Indian Ocean Dipole problem – Should it be watched?

Temperature continues to rise!

As mentioned in the Part-1,  Regional Institute for Climate Change (RIGC) at Tokyo, Japan has warned that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is developing that would become a resistance between the monsoon movement and could cause the monsoon to come to halt in August.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) believes that temperatures are rising in both the western and eastern areas of Indian ocean therefore the situation is little complex but no cause of worry however monsoon going on short break is common during the season.

Sea temperatures rising and rising!

Probability of ENSO

Temperatures are higher in the Indian ocean as mentioned in the PWP’s article in early April which could favour any tropical activity in the both the basin that is Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea, temperatures are very high in the southern and south-western Bay of Bengal. Above 30°C have been recorded in the Bay of Bengal which could favour formation of a strong tropical cyclone during this week. Temperatures are rising in the Arabian sea as mentioned by PWP in early April, 29°C was the temperature recorded in south-eastern Arabian sea. Bay’s system could churn into a strong tropical cyclone.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is issuing it’s monsoon forecast of 2013 on May 6, which is stated below;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressure in Bay of Bengal, overall it could be normal on the wider scale in Pakistan and India due to the neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific ocean till October. Pakistan can get monsoon rains during the first week of July. Westerlies and Easterlies interaction could lead to heavy flooding rainfall over the rivers of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, westerlies could increase their presence in late May and June. Rains could be normal in southern areas while near normal in northern areas. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab only. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a Monsoon season? - Part II

TO BE CONTINUED….

• Westerlies are coming back!

• Heat wave coming!

• Karachi to remain calm!

Temperature and Precipitation in May

It was feared that due to frequent invasion of westerlies, Pakistan may be abandoned of the important heating trend but we saw that as soon as May started temperature started to rise. It is worth-mentioning the ‘true’ heat waves of summer are missing at the moment. High temperatures have been witnessed only in Sindh and Balochistan while Punjab is missing the heat waves due to flow of westerlies. The second heat wave (stronger than the first) is expected in the coming week in Sindh.

Factors – Outlook

*A weak Western trough ’05′ is over extreme north-eastern areas of Pakistan, it has broke the trend of high temperatures. Another Western trough ’06′ would come on May 9 night, it would follow the same path.

North Remembers – Dusty Shower possible

‘Dust storm can occur in Northern areas!’

Activity in the North; Tropical activity seen in Bay!

Since the coming WD ’06′ would be far away from the major cities of the northern areas of the country therefore most activity can take place in the Gilgit-Balistan province however dusty winds can occur on May 10 till May 12 in the extreme and adjoining northern areas including Peshawar and Islamabad with cloudy intervals. Temperatures can drop by 2°C to 3°C in Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and adjoining cities due to the presence of western winds from May 10 till May 12 after that temperature would again rise. During this period dust storm with drizzle/isolated shower can occur in the mentioned  and their adjoining areas while moderate rain with strong dust storm can occur in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

South runs dry!

The Sindh province’s upper cities like Sukkur can experience dusty winds on May 10/May 11 while the temperatures would remain around 40°C till 42°C. A heat wave is expected in Sindh starting from May 12 excluding coastal areas, temperatures in upper cities can reach 45°C/47°C during that heat wave.

Karachi’s temperature could remain 34°C/36°C during the next coming days with fast winds, partly cloudy weather can also occur.

2013 Monsoon News

• Pre-monsoon brings flood to India and Bangladesh

• Bay of Bengal’s show a flop?

• Arabian sea to have it’s own show!

Factors – Outlook

*Low pressure is over southern Bay of Bengal, it could intensify into a cyclonic storm ‘Mahasen’ during the coming, a delay in its formation has occurred. No affect on Pakistan.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) has mentioned the things expected in the rain season in its Monsoon Article - Part II.

Depression BOB 01 – Bay fails to throw a big show !?!

Low pressure has developed in the Bay – Behind Schedule

Till the end of this week there would be a depression/deep depression in the southern Bay of Bengal that could affect the eastern coast of India though earlier it was expected to become a strong cyclone and create havoc in the eastern coast but now it can develop into a weak cyclonic storm with pressure of 996/994 mbar.

The system could bring widespread heavy downpour to north-eastern India, Bangladesh and adjoining Burma. During this week, the low pressure/depression can drop around 400 mm rain in the Bay of Bengal!

India and Myanmar

Even before this low pressure, widespread Pre-monsoon downpour has hit North-eastern India, Bangladesh and Burma. Due to intense heating over central India, the onset of monsoon is expected early in India. 90 mm precipitation has occurred in the cities of Bangladesh that has flooded towns.

Arabian sea warming up for something?

During late May, there is a slight possibility for the formation of a depression that it likely to travel till central Arabian sea after that its future is disputed.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

‘Western system has arrived to witness the election!’

‘The Country needs you’

Western disturbance ’06′ with cyclonic circulations over central north-western areas is now moving towards the northern areas of the country. The amount of rainfall in the system is not much however it can bring some dust storms (56 km/h to 76 km/h) to the northern areas including Islamabad, Peshawar and adjoining cities.

For more cities and detailed weather update, check PWP’s Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 8 – May 22)

May 11 Weather Update for Main cities

What will the weather be like on May 11, one of the biggest and most important day of Pakistan.  Following is the brief weather update of main cities of Pakistan;

Islamabad 

• Temperature – 33°C/34°C.
• Rain – Mostly cloudy with chances of shower with strong dusty winds.

Karachi

• Temperature – 35°C/36°C
• Rain – No chance, dry with partly cloudy with fast winds.

Lahore

• Temperature – 36°C/38°C
• Rain – Partly/mostly cloudy with slight chances of drizzle along with strong winds.

Peshawar

• Temperature – 32°C/34°C
• Rain – Mostly cloudy with chances of shower with strong dusty winds.

Quetta

• Temperature – 26°C/27°C
• Rain – No chance, dry with partly/mostly cloudy.

Message from PWP for May 11

‘One Day – Five years!’

Pakistan still has a long way to go but your vote will be the first brick in building a new and better Pakistan. The country cannot get rid of it’s problem overnight nor those problems would fade in coming five years but the wave of change would start from tomorrow if you vote for a responsible party and who knows after 10 to 15 years Pakistan would be a strong developed nation because of the decision you took on May 11, 2013!

“This is a special tropical coverage that started from May 13 and will end on May 16”

Cyclone Mahasen losing steam?

The 2013 North Indian ocean cyclone season started off with the formation of a depression BOB 01 in the Bay of Bengal on May 10 that later intensified into the season’s first full blown cyclone. On average 4 to 6 tropical depressions form in the North Indian ocean, more in the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian sea.

King ‘Mahasen’ cyclone! 

Cyclone ‘Mahasen’ formed on May 11 in the southern Bay of Bengal, the word ‘Mahasen’ has been contributed by Sri Lanka.  Mahasen was a king of Sri Lanka who ruled the country from 275 to 301 AD.

Rare: Connection of South and North Indian Ocean

Cyclone Mahasen and Jamala

A very rare phenomenon occurred both in the south-west and north Indian ocean. On May 11, cyclone ‘Jamala’ in the south-west Indian ocean was just south of cyclone ‘Mahasen’. Jamala was moving in a clockwise-direction while Mahasen was moving in a counter-clockwise direction however later in the day Mahasen absorbed the moisture from Jamala as it was the larger storm thus leading a end of Jamala.

Two cyclones in different part of oceans

In May 2002, this phenomenon took place when a cyclone formed in North Indian ocean’s Arabian sea while another cyclone in south-west Indian ocean was near Madagascar. The two storm erupted from the same large area of disturbance.

Timing of updates – 3:00 pm PKT (mid-day), 6:30 pm PKT (evening) and 9:00 pm PKT (night)

Update issued on May 13 at 6:00 pm PKT (also for 9:00 pm)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is just 700 km south-east of Indian city of Chennai while 1300 km south-south-west of Bangladeshi city of Chittagong during last few days it has moved in a WNW direction and due to the incoming westerlies, Mahasen is likely to curve in a Northwards direction briefly before taking a sharp re-curve in a NE track, at the moment the system is slowly moving in a NW direction almost stationary. Mahasen may intensify further into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane but the storm would accelerate after taking the NE track therefore the chances of intensification are low. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening morning due to increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 55 mph (88 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

As of today, Showers have occurred in Chennai. Indian states of Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadi can get showers at time moderate with windy conditions (46 km/h to 56 km/h). Sri Lanka can experience frequent moderate rain with isolated heavy falls and strong winds (above 56 km/h) as the outer bands have gripped Sri Lanka.

“This is the third article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and it will be followed by many more articles”

As things heats up – Monsoon gets ready

The sub-continent is experiencing its first major heatwave of the season that is crucial for building up a normal monsoon season. It is worth noting that this year the western sub-continent was a under the grip of below normal temperatures due to the everlasting westerlies till April therefore it was feared that the region would miss out the heatwave but luckily it came on time and western Sub-continent heated up on the right time.

Wrath of heatwave brings life to standstill

The heatwave started from May 12 in the Sindh province of Pakistan as was predicted by PWP on May 8. The heatwave gripped entire Pakistan on May 15 and gradually intensified on May 16/May 17. This heatwave is expected to last till the end of May;

Hell-like heatwave in Pakistan

High temperatures till the end of May

Every year before the monsoon season there is a heatwave but in the year 2011 and 2012, those heatwaves were isolated. 2013′s heatwave can be compared to the deadly and record-breaking heatwave of 2010 in which many areas of Pakistan’s Sindh and Balochistan experienced 53°C that heatwave took the lives of more than ten people in Pakistan. Following are the highest temperatures recorded in India and Pakistan during the heatwave;

• Islamabad: 41°C
• Lahore: 45°C
• Multan:  46°C
• Peshawar: 43°C
• Hyderabad: 45.5°C
•  Nawabshah: 47°C
• Jacobabad: 50°C
•  Larkana: 51°C
• Moen Jo Daro: 50°C
•  Sukkur: 48°C
•  Nagarparkar: 44°C

Never ending heatwave in India 

• Bikaner: 47°C
• Nagpur: 46.5 °C
• Jasialmer: 46.3°C
• Ganganagar: 46°C
• Chandrapur: 45.5°C

Weak Western disturbance ’07′ would be passing through the extreme northern areas of Pakistan yet it would not be able to break the heat spell in India nor Pakistan. Precautions should be taken during this wave of high temperatures!

Monsoon marching westwards!

• Overall the conditions are good for the development of  Monsoon at the moment 

Clouds of Mahasen over Chittagong beach

Monsoon has set over South Bay of Bengal and the Andaman sea on May 17 due to the formation of cyclone ‘Mahasen’ that helped the monsoon to advance in that sector as it resulted in cross-equilateral winds however the disadvantage of Mahasen was that it has delayed the onset of Monsoon over Kerala (most important place for the monsoon). Normally the monsoon advances into the Andaman sea on May 20 but this year it has been early. It is now being predicted that the giant winds would now set over Kerala on June 3, three days behind the normal schedule. The onset of Monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of these giant winds over Sub-continent. Over the years the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the onset on monsoon over Kerala, which can be seen from the below data;

Tropical Activity also gaining strength?

Karachi after Monsoon rain

There might be some hamper in monsoon progress over the western coast of India due to the tropical activity in the Arabian sea (May 20 till May 23) as it could shift the moisture towards Oman and Yemen. Another low pressure area can form in the Bay of Bengal during the next few days which will give boost to the developing monsoon in the areas along Bay of Bengal. According to PWP, during the first week of June the western coast of India would see frequent formation of thunderstorms and there are slim chances of another tropical activity in the Arabian sea and therefore PWP believes that monsoon might set over Kerala earlier than June 3.

Temperature in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian sea are around 28°C till 31°C. Northern areas of Pakistan can get monsoon rain during the first week of July while central areas can get monsoon rain during the first/second week while southern areas can get monsoon rain during the second/third week of July.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) issued it’s monsoon forecast of 2013 on May 6, which is stated below;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressure in Bay of Bengal, overall it could be normal on the wider scale in Pakistan and India due to the neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific ocean till October. Pakistan can get monsoon rains during the first week of July. Westerlies and Easterlies interaction could lead to heavy flooding rainfall over the rivers of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, westerlies could increase their presence in late May and June. Rains could be normal in southern areas while near normal in northern areas. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab only. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year in the country) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a Monsoon season? - Part II
• Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed! – Part III

TO BE CONTINUED….

• Major Oklahoma tornado after 1999 and 2003

• 2011 U.S Tornado outbreak killed 150+ people

• More low intensity tornadoes expected!

Oklahoma has witnessed a mammoth tornado that was 3 kilometer wide packing winds of up to 320 kph, it has killed 91 people while 300 are injured. There is a forecast of more tornadoes in the affected areas though this tornado was not the strongest of all when compared to past tornado in U.S but its size is what has caused severe widespread destruction.

A TV Channel shows the approaching tornado

On the Enhanced Fujita Scale, it was a EF4 tornado, second most powerful category of tornado with winds up to 320 kph. On a regular Fujita Scale it was a F3 tornado.

This is a developing story!

•  This article have been shared by Waseem Ahmed from Karachi, Pakistan

TROPICS THAT AFFECTED KARACHI and OTHER COASTS OF PAKISTAN:

Arabian Sea, about 20 years ago was known to be a ‘Silent’ or ‘Quiet’ sea and formation of storms/cyclone in this part of north Indian Ocean was very rare. However in recent past it has been very active with producing some very strong or severe Tropical Systems and Monsoon Lows that caused large scale damages in many countries neighboring the Arabian Sea including Pakistan, Oman and India.

Attached is a brief detail of some of the ‘Tropical Impact Years’ on Pakistani coasts especially Karachi during last 22 years.

Portal Interactive – Get Interactive now!

Send your weather articles, research, ideas, videos or pictures on babar.cyclone@yahoo.com Your article would be published on Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) with your name and city, without any changes. So you could also be the part of Portal Interactive!

‘Pakistan under severe heatwave since 10 days’

It keeps getting hotter!

The cultural hub of the country came close in setting a new all time high temperature on May 23 as the highest temperature in the month of May occurred in 1990 (23 years ago) that was 47.4 °C according to NOAA. On May 23, the severe heatwave that has engulfed much of Pakistan since mid of May caused the temperature to rise at 47 °C thus coming close but not breaking the monthly temperature.

Lahore breaking day high records!

From May 18 till May 23, Lahore has witnessed new high temperature record for the day, following are recorded temperature;

• May 18 – 45 °C
• May 19 - 45 °C
• May 20 - 45 °C
• May 21 – 46 °C
• May 22 -46 °C
• May 23 – 47 °C

On May 23, Jacobabad (Sindh), Nawabshah (Sindh), Bhakkar (Punjab) and Nurpur Thal (Punjab) were at 50°C.

When will Lahoris be free?

Rain and Dust storm is the solution!

Well, it is well known that load-shedding is intolerable in the city therefore the relief has to come from nature. From tomorrow there are chances that temperatures might start decreasing in the northern areas including Lahore. Tomorrow the mercury can be at 45 °C till 46 °C in Lahore. From May 24 night/May 25, a western trough ’08′ is coming to the northern areas that could bring drizzle/isolated showers with dust storms to those parts. Mostly cloudy with sudden dusty winds can occur in Lahore during the weekend with further drop in temperature.

The heatwave is under control for long!

On May 8, PWP predicted that a strong heatwave would affect Sindh from the coming week of May. On May 15, it gripped the entire country and gradually intensified on May 16/May 17. This heatwave will continue till the end of May as written in Monsoon III. Though some decrease of 2°C to 5°C from current situation could occur in the northern areas while slight decrease would occur in the central and southern parts. The heatwave would weaken by the first week of June.

• Extreme heatwave, west for the rescue!

• Rain in the North after long time!

• Karachi’s cloud returns

Temperature and Precipitation in late May

On May 8, PWP predicted that a strong heatwave would affect Sindh from the coming week of May. On May 15, it gripped the entire country and gradually intensified on May 16/May 17. This heatwave will continue till the end of May as written in Monsoon III. Though some decrease of 2°C to 5°C from current situation could occur in the northern areas while slight decrease would occur in the central and southern parts. Around 50°C was recorded in some parts of Sindh and adjoining Punjab while above 45°C was recorded in some areas of Punjab including Lahore. The heatwave would weaken by the first week of June but will remain till pre-monsoon starts in the country.

Factors – Outlook

*A Western trough ’08′ would pass through the northern areas of the country on May 24 night.

North Remembers – Dusty Shower possible

‘Dust storm can occur in Northern areas!’

Good Precipitation after many days

Western trough ’08′ could affect the northern areas including Peshawar, Islamabad and Lahore, WD’s main focus would be Gilgit-Balistan and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. From May 24 night till May 27 morning there are chances of drizzle/showers with dust storms and thunder/lightening in the mentioned areas including North-eastern Punjab (Gujranwala, Sialkot, Lahore, Jhelum and adjoining cities).

Temperatures can drop by 2°C to 5°C especially from Sunday in Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, Gujranwala and adjoining cities. During this period rain with moderate falls along with strong dust storm and thunderstorm can occur in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Gilgit-Balistan. However the current extreme heatwave though would be weakened after WD ’08′ passes by, will remain till the end of May as a weak to moderate heatwave till pre-monsoon precipitation.

Central Areas – Unsettled

Temperatures can drop by 2°C to 4°C in Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad and adjoining cities due to the presence of western winds from May 25 till May 27. During this period, sudden dusty winds can occur with cloudy intervals.

South runs dry!

The Sindh province’s upper cities like Sukkur, Nawabshah, Larakana and other adjoining cities can experience a drop of temperature from the coming week. Temperatures can drop by 2°C to 3°C in this part though heatwave would remain around 44°C till 46°C till pre-monsoon activity.

Karachi’s temperature could remain 33°C/36°C during the next coming days with fast winds, partly cloudy weather can also occur.

2013 Monsoon News

• Monsoon coming early!

• Tropical activities in Arabian sea

• Punjab and Sindh awaits for pre-monsoon 

Factors – Outlook

*A upper air cyclonic circulation has formed in the southern central Arabian sea and it would move towards the Arabian Peninsula with slight intensification.

India getting ready for early rains!

Active Monsoon in June – Some thunderstorms could pop up over E.Pak

There is a good possibility that monsoon could cover Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra including Mumbai, Goa, West Bengal and Sikkim and eastern parts of Bihar before June 10. Since the conditions are fruitful at the moment, monsoon might set over Kerala early (possibility during last days of May). Widespread heavy downpour monsoon can occur in June in these areas of India.

Pakistan’s Pre-monsoon – A ray of hope?

As per the latest analysis, scattered pre-monsoon showers can occur in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab from middle June, another tropical activity is also expected in the Arabian sea in the month of June.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

‘Another Arabian system moving towards Oman?’

Low pressure ARB 01 has shown signs of intensification

Cyclones are very rare in this part of the world but the Arabian Sea does have some potential in giving birth to the strongest tropical cyclones of the north Indian ocean. The finest example being Cyclone Gonu, which attained a peak intensity of 920 mbar with winds of 160 mph gusting to 195 mph. Gonu is the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, and is also the strongest named cyclone in the northern Indian ocean,there are some studies that suggest that Gonu might have been the strongest cyclone of north Indian ocean since record began.

A new study has shown that there is a gradual increase in cyclones in the Arabian sea however now most storms in the Arabian sea move towards Oman or Yemen as compared to the earlier Pakistan or India.

Next name on the list?

Tropical system in the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal as of May 28

• Phailin – It is a name contributed by Thailand, it is pronounced as ‘Pie-leen’ and it means Sapphire.

You might be interested in this article, A Cyclone is coming to Pakistan this year!

Tropical cyclone forming in the Arabian sea?

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) in its Weather Update Article on May 8 had said, “During late May, there is a slight possibility for the formation of a depression that it likely to travel till central Arabian sea after that its future is disputed.”

Chances of formation of a cyclone are very slim however there are good chances of a well-marked low/depression.

Expected History of the storm

Notice: Latest updates will be issued when necessary since tropical systems have high tendency to change their track and strength.

Only GFS showing intensification till 996 mbar

According to latest runs by few computer models show that the circulation that formed in the central Arabian sea has tracked westwards towards central coast of Oman and as of May 27, it has intensified into a low pressure area and lies off the coast of Oman. It is expected to move in a North/NW direction and during this period it may intensify further into a depression or even a deep depression as the pressure can drop till 1004 mbar/1000 mbar (GFS showing drop till 996 mbar) though it will remain close to the coast of Oman. During the last days of May/early first week of June, it will fizzle out over the north-eastern areas of Oman, some clouding may reach Makran coast and adjoining Sindh coast.

It is worth-mentioning that since the track of the system is away from the monsoon region (Pakistan and India) therefore any intensification of this storm above well-marked low pressure could be harmful to the monsoon advancement in the Arabian sea since ti will drag the moisture away. Moderate to heavy rainfall with strong winds 45 km/h to 60 km/h winds can occur in eastern and north-eastern areas of Oman during this period some drizzle/showers can occur in Makran coast and adjoining Sindh coast, they could be considered as pre-monsoon activity.

Another tropical activity?

Models show it to become a strong system

Yes there are chances of another tropical activity in the Arabian sea after the first one dissipates. According to few computer models, during the mid week of June some thunderstorms from the Bay of Bengal might cross southern India to reach north-eastern Arabian sea. These thunderstorms would bring widespread monsoon rainfall to the west coast of India and from the same thunderstorms a deep depression or a cyclonic storm might form that could move till coastal Gujarat and having some affect on south-eastern Sindh during the mid week/last week of June.

Tropical Poll

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

•  This article have been shared by Waseem Ahmed from Karachi, Pakistan

31^st May and KARACHI – A Look at the History

In the past, Karachi had experienced a ‘Panic Situation’ on the same day in two consecutive years:

On Saturday, 31^st May 1986: A hot and humid day during the holy month of Ramzan, it was quite humid (Hubs) till late afternoon as clouds started to appear around 4 pm from north, covered the sky and turned very dark. Then, I remember, around 4:30 it turned out ‘yellowish red sky’ with absolute darkness like night, then Karachi experienced about 15 minutes of very severe dust storm,  known as ‘Kaali Andhi’ in which thunder and rain accompanied later. Winds speed was recorded 60 knots & rainfall was 17 mm and it caused widespread damage in the city.

That storm remains the most severe dust storm in Karachi on the records till the 23-June, 2007 storm.

(A picture of next day’s Urdu newspaper showing the headline and other news about that deadly dust storm)

31-May 1986 storm information:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03943.x/abstract

31^st May, 1985: A year earlier on the same date i.e. on Friday, 31^st May 1985, another day during Ramzan, a Tropical Cyclone in the Arabian Sea diverted towards Indian Gujarat near Run-Kuch coast. Earlier it was heading a bit north when it created panic in the city.

Although I was very young & didn’t have much knowledge or concept about the maps, but I remember that day very well, it was the Friday during the month of Ramzan, the anxiety and prays were going high until it was informed through Radio and T.V. that cyclone has diverted. Clouds were coming from ENE brought some showers in that afternoon and in the evening it was strange looking reddish sky just before the Aftaar.

(Given is the picture of that cyclone track)

Portal Interactive – Get Interactive now!

Send your weather articles, research, ideas, videos or pictures on babar.cyclone@yahoo.com Your article would be published on Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) with your name and city, without any changes. So you could also be the part of Portal Interactive!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) in the month of May published 12 articles while there were 3 articles from Portal Interactive;

1. Portal Interactive: 31 May and Karachi – 1985 and 1986
2. Time for Arabian sea to have tropical activities!
3. Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 25 – May 31)
4. Lahore suffers as mercury keeps rising
5. Portal Interactive: Tropics that affected Karachi and Other coasts of Pakistan
6. Massive Tornado blasts its way through Oklahoma!
7. Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed!
8. Cyclone Mahasen threatens Bangladesh, Myanmar and India – Special Coverage!
9. Pakistan Election 2013: Dust storms can occur in North!
10. Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 8 – May 22)
11. Pakistan’s Monsoon: Do we really need a Monsoon season?
12. Vote for Pakistan – The country needs you!
13. Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent!
14. Portal Interactive: Water Spout!
15. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) – April 2013 in Review!

Article of the Month

1. Lahore suffers as mercury keeps rising

•  These pictures have been shared by Muhammad Muzzammil from Karachi, Pakistan

Portal Interactive – Get Interactive now!

Send your weather articles, research, ideas, videos or pictures on babar.cyclone@yahoo.com Your article would be published on Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) with your name and city, without any changes. So you could also be the part of Portal Interactive!

• Bear the Heatwave for some days

• Road to Monsoon starts!

• Pre-Monsoon activity in Pakistan?

Temperature and Precipitation from June 1 till June 8

The extreme heatwave that started from May 15, it weakened during the last weekend of May due to western trough ’08′ that brought severe hailstorm to the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Peshawar. Once again the heatwave is intensifying and it will continue to do so till the expected Pre-monsoon activity in the country.

The highest temperature would be recorded from the the coming week that is June 2 till June 8 after that a slight decrease of 1°C to 3°C expected though the mercury will still be high till the mid-week of June.

Cool North not so cool! 

Clouds are nearing from the east

Mostly dry weather is expected in the northern half of the country, few high and mid level clouds can pass through the extreme northern areas of the country from time to time.

Temperatures will once again rise in these areas as the cold fronts are not near the northern parts. The highest temperature can reach north-eastern Punjab (45°C/47°C in Lahore, Sialkot, Jhelum, Gujranwala and adjoining cities), while 41°C/44°C in the northern areas Islamabad, Peshawar and adjoining cities. It can reach 47°C/49°C in Faisalabad, Okara, Sahiwal and adjoining cities.

Central Areas to roast again!

Temperature of 44°C/47 °C can reach in Multan, Muzaffargarh, Bahawalpur and adjoining cities.

South to sweat badly as heatwave gains peak!

Sukkur, Jacoababad, Larakana and other adjoining cities can experience 46°C/50°C  while 45°C/48°C in Nawabshah, Dadu and adjoining cities. Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and adjoining cities can experience 40°C/43°C

Nothing is changed for Karachi’s temperature as it could remain around 32°C/36°C during the next coming days with fast winds, partly cloudy weather can also occur.

2013 Monsoon News

• Monsoon hits Kerala!

• Active Monsoon in June

• Pre-Monsoon around the corner in Pak?

Factors – Outlook

*A upper air cyclonic circulation is over Chhattisgarh and adjoining states of India. It was the depression BOB 02 that affected West Bengal of India few days back.

Monsoon in all important Kerala!

Monsoon advancement seen on the satellite picture

Active Monsoon is expected in the month of June, Monsoon hit Andaman sea on May 17 while it hits Kerala on June 1. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) did say that Monsoon might hit Kerala on June 3 but PWP in its Monsoon III did say that it would hit early than June 3.

Temperatures are decreasing in central India due to the depression BOB 02 which has moved inland as an UAC. Monsoon will now move into Karnataka,  Andhra Pradesh and other parts of Tamil Nadu. Monsoon still has to move towards central India and then westwards. There are slim chances of tropical activity in the Arabian sea in the month of June.

Pre-Monsoon can break the Pak heat!

Scattered pre-monsoon can occur in Sindh and North-eastern areas of Punjab from the middle week of June. Surrounding areas of South Punjab can also be affected depending upon the track of monsoons circulation.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

“This is the fourth article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and it will be followed by many more articles”

Before Monsoon: Extreme heatwave – Not ended!

Pigeons try to beat the heat!

High temperatures does not necessarily leads to Pre-monsoon, a common misconception. It is worth-mentioning that the extreme heatwave that gripped Pakistan and western & central India in May was the longest and strongest heatwave since 2010′s record breaking temperatures in the region.

This extreme heatwave has ‘weakened’ but not broken in the region. The heatwave that started from the mid week of May is still active though some weakening did occur during the last weekend of May due to non-monsoon development that occurred over the northern areas in the form of western trough ’08′ that affect the northern areas of the country from May 24 night till May 27 morning. Western trough ’08′ brought severe hailstorm to the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Western trough ’09′ that affected the northern areas from June 2/June 3 with strong dust storms did not cause any significant change in temperature. This heatwave will continue till the mid week of June unless pre-monsoon activity starts.

Path for Pre-Monsoon laid

Before the monsoon season, there is a period of Pre-monsoon activity that occurs over the Sub-continent in May and June. This phenomenon is quite common in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh however in Pakistan there are few years in which Pre-monsoon rains do not occur. Even without Pre-monsoon, monsoon season can start, there is no fixed rule! Following are the Pre-monsoon activity recorded in the country from the year 2009 till 2012;

2009 Pre-monsoon – Arabian sea brings rain!

Brief showers in June in Karachi

Pre-monsoon activity was observed in Sindh including Karachi due to the formation of weak tropical depression ARB 01 in the Arabian sea on June 23. The storm caused light rainfall with fast winds in the coastal belt. 3 mm rainfall was recorded in Karachi due to this depression. On June 25, the remnants of ARB 01 helped the formation of another weak tropical depression ARB 02 which was just 300 km away from Karachi, it however caused windy condition in the coastal Sindh. No pre-monsoon activity occurred in upper parts of the country, western disturbance (non-monsoon weather system) however caused rainfall in those areas.

2010 Pre-monsoon –  Arabian sea again brings rain!

Mid-night heavy pre-monsoon rain in Karachi

On June 2, a strong tropical storm “Phet” in the Arabian sea intensified into a category-4 hurricane. Cyclone caused heavy rainfall with strong winds over Sindh province on June 6 and June 7. Karachi got 152 mm rainfall during this period, the remnants of Phet brought drizzle/showers to south Punjab. On June 14, some Pre-monsoon currents from the Arabian sea caused light rainfall with strong winds in Punjab.

2011 Pre-monsoon – The North soaks in rain

A Tropical storm 01A that was a depression on the Indian Meteorological department scale (IMD) brought clouds from the eastern direction over some parts of Sindh coast including Karachi on June 11 night.

Due to presence of moisture over the Arabian sea and moist winds of western trough, northern areas of the country experienced pre-monsoon showers in Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Peshawar, Faisalabad, Muzaffarabad and other cities, the intensity was localized heavy in some areas. This activity started during the last weeks of June.

2012 Pre-monsoon – Thunderstorm crosses into Sindh from Gujarat

Monsoon rain on June 13 in Mithi

Pre-monsoon activity started in south-eastern Sindh from June 12 and lasted till June 15 with some showers in between. Moderate showers occurred in these parts on June 13;

• Mithi got 28 mm.
• Chachro got 24 mm.
• Diplo got 6 mm.

After June 15, no area of Pakistan has experienced any pre-monsoon activity. A weak spell of rain occurred in Punjab that was termed by the Pakistan’s National Met Office as pre-monsoon rain in reality these showers were a direct result of westerlies that have been dominating the north-western sub-continent for the last few days.

2013 Pre-monsoon – What will happen this year?

The northern and adjoining central parts of the country are still under the influence of western winds however the southern and adjoining central parts have disturbed winds. High level clouds from India can be visible in south-eastern Sindh while very weak mid-level clouds that are forming over southern parts are moving from S to N/NW direction.

As written by PWP in Monsoon II on May 6, there are chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh as well as North-eastern Punjab. The expected rains can occur during the middle of June.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s monsoon forecast that was issued on May 6, which is stated below;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressures in Bay of Bengal, overall it could be normal on the wider scale in Pakistan and India due to the neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific ocean till October. Pakistan can get monsoon rains during the first week of July. Westerlies and Easterlies interaction could lead to heavy flooding rainfall over the rivers of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, westerlies could increase their presence in late May and June. Rains could be normal in southern areas while near normal in northern areas. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab only. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a monsoon season? - Part II
• Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed! - Part III
• Look back at Past: Pre-Monsoon rains are just around the corner? - Part IV

TO BE CONTINUED…….

‘Back to Back Storms – Hails and Winds blast Peshawar’

Roar like a thunderstorm!

The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is under the grip of some severe weather events that has been blasting the Province since the last few days. The storms have taken the lives of many people. The scenes are not so different in the provincial capital as well, Peshawar which has been hit hard by back to back storms. The disturbed weather last for 15 minutes to an hour and leaves a trail of destruction behind it.

The First incident – Western winds takes responsibility

‘Rain, Snow, Hail, Winds, Floods, Landslide – All in one!’

Crystal stones from the sky!

A Western system (numbered ’08′ by PWP) affected the northern areas of the country from May 24 night till May 27 morning. It was welcomed by the people as it significantly weakened the extreme heatwave that had gripped the entire country since May 15 however it was not a calm weather front. Western trough ’08′ brought severe hailstorm to the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Peshawar along with dust storms. The severe hailstorm lasted in Peshawar for 15 minutes that carpeted the city white!

Death Toll

• 4 people died across the northern areas

However Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was not in this grief alone, FATA and Gilgit-Baltistan too saw the wrath of nature. Floods and Landslide hit these regions, snowfall occurred over also occurred over mountain peaks in Gilgit-Baltistan province. The wind speed in Islamabad and Rawalpindi reached 85 km/h and 120 km/h respectively.

The Second Incident – Western winds take responsibility again

‘Winds grew stronger and stronger!’

Dust of West grips Peshawar!

Another western system (numbered ’09′ by PWP) though weaker from its predecessor started from June 2 mid-day and lasted till June 3 night. 75 km/h (46 mph) winds lasted till an hour that devastated Peshawar city as many billboards and trees were uprooted while walls of houses collapsed.

Death Toll

• 17 people died across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 40 injured

The fierce winds also reached Islamabad/Rawalpindi where according to few local stations unconfirmed 90 km/h to 130 km/h winds blew in the cities.

More to come?

Things are going to be quiet for some days in Peshawar however during the middle of June there can be another wave of western winds but this time the western winds would not be the only thing near the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, there will be another thing as well. What could it be? Eastern winds might be waiting at the Pak-Indo border!

•  This article has been shared by Zaeem Khalid from Islamabad, Pakistan

Plunging into a historic event that is still crystal clear in my mind, the temperature on June 5, 2003 was soaring up to 43 °C in the twin cities of Rawalpindi/Islamabad and rain was long overdue. It was only a matter of time for favorable conditions to develop for a nice thunderstorm which would bring relief from the hot weather since localized thunderstorms are common that effectively bring down the temperature by a storm accompanied by thunder, wind and a good rain shower during the dry months of May and June. But tonight the twin cities were in for a special deal…

Around midnight some lightning could be seen in the far northwest and at about 1:50 AM much to everyone’s surprise a violent thunderstorm had developed quietly and struck the twin cities at an incredible speed from Westerly direction. Wind gusts in Rawalpindi were reported by Pakistan Meteorological Department to have reached 167 km/h (90 knots) while secondary winds of 85 km/h (46 knots) were reported for Islamabad city. On record this is one of the most furious storms as duration for the storm was an incredible 45 min, which caused widespread destruction especially in the “kucha abadi” of Rawalpindi city and suburbs. Collapsing walls and roofs killed 5 people and injured many. The storm brought power lines and trees which suspended power in many areas of Rawalpindi/Islamabad for days (including my area). In an hour 67 mm of rain was reported for Rawalpindi which is rather high for a June storm.

I had gone to bed after witnessing the incredible fury of Mother Nature but the excitement woke me up again to see what was happening at around 4 AM in the morning. I remember a wild moon shinning through the window, the wind was absolutely calm and it seemed like nothing happened! I realized that we still didn’t have power and neither did the neighboring areas. On the other hand, I saw that two large (25 feet tall) twin sarv trees in my front lawn were uprooted and at the back of the house Indian Rosewood (Sheesham) which was a 30 foot tree had snapped in half! As a 10 year old at the time, I was super astonished yet excited; guessing the wind speed to be something I had never witnessed before and went back to bed as it was a school night.

Portal Interactive – Get Interactive now!

Send your weather articles, research, ideas, videos or pictures on babar.cyclone@yahoo.com Your article would be published on Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) with your name and city, without any changes. So you could also be the part of Portal Interactive!

• This list has been shared by Umair Dero from Hyderabad, Pakistan

1st Pre-Monsoon/Monsoon Rain Dates of South East Sindh:

◘ 2000: —– 10th July —— : Heavy rain in Tharparkar & Umarkot
◘ 2001: —– 14th June —– : Heavy rain in Tharparkar, Sanghar & Umarkot
◘ 2002: —– 25th June —– : Moderate to Heavy rain in different areas
◘ 2003: —– 18th June —– : 5-15 mm rain in SE Sindh
◘ 2004: —– 14th June —– : Heavy rain in Mirpurkhas, Umarkot & Tharparkar
◘ 2005: —– 30th June —– : Light to Moderate rain in Nagarparkar
◘ 2006: —– 25th June —– : Heavy rain in Badin & Tharparkar
◘ 2007: —– 29th June —– : Moderate to Heavy rain in Tharparkar
◘ 2008: —– 13th June —– : Light to Moderate rain in Tharparkar & Badin

◘ 2009: —– 23rd June —– : Moderate to Heavy rain in Tharparkar
◘ 2010: —– 4th July ——– : Moderate to Heavy rain in SE Sindh
◘ 2011: —– 16th July —— : Moderate to Heavy rain in Tharparkar
◘ 2012: —– 13th June —– : Heavy rain in Tharparkar
◘ 2013: —– 4th June ——- : Light to Moderate rain in Mirpurkhas & Umarkot

1st Pre-Monsoon/Monsoon Rain Dates of Hyderabad:

◘ 2000: —– 12th July —— : Light to Moderate rain
◘ 2001: —– 15th June —– : Light rain
◘ 2002: —– 26th June —– : Rain with Duststorm
◘ 2003: —– 18th June —– : Heavy rain with Duststorm
◘ 2004: —– 4th August —- : ‘NE’ Drizzle
◘ 2005: —– 28th July —— : ‘ENE’ Drizzle
◘ 2006: —– 25th June —– : Light to Moderate rain with Duststorm
◘ 2007: —– 30th June —– : Heavy rain
◘ 2008: —– 29th July —— : Heavy rain
◘ 2009: —– 9th July ——– : 5 mm rain
◘ 2010: —– 6th July ——– : Light to Moderate rain
◘ 2011: —– 26th July —— : Light rain
◘ 2012: —– 10th July —— : 3.2 mm rain

Portal Interactive – Get Interactive now!

Send your weather articles, research, ideas, videos or pictures on babar.cyclone@yahoo.com Your article would be published on Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) with your name and city, without any changes. So you could also be the part of Portal Interactive!

“This is the fifth article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and it will be followed by many more articles”

‘Indian Ocean is giving threats to the Monsoon!’

Deficient rains over Pakstan?

El Niño/La Niña–Southern Oscillation of Pacific Ocean is not the only thing that is an obstacle in the way of monsoon season but there is a similar phenomenon in the Indian ocean that has an impact on the monsoon seas though it affects less number of countries than the ENSO conidtions. What is it? It is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), this year it is the only thing that is giving threats to the upcoming monsoon season especially to Pakistan!

Indian Ocean Dipole and monsoon

Early Monsoon – Danger during last months?

‘American and Australian saying bad monsoon ahead!’

Moving towards -IOD

According to the American and Australian experts, a negative Indian ocean Dipole is very likely this year that will remain towards the end of Monsoon season. According to their models which show that a sharp transition would take place during last week of May as shown in the above chart which will result in the formation of a negative Indian ocean Dipole hence the onset of monsoon would be delayed in western India and all over Pakistan, these areas will continue to witness below normal rains till the end of monsoon.

The Australian Meteorology also points towards cooler temperature in the Pacific Ocean that might led to a weak La-Nina later in the year. Four out of five Australian models hints towards a negative Indian ocean dipole during the upcoming monsoon season.

‘Japanese worry too – Little cautious at the moment!’

Earlier, signs of El-Nino were seen

The Japanese on the other hand were the first to point out that negative Indian ocean Dipole would develop this year though they are little cautious this year as their model failed last year to predict the sudden development of positive Indian ocean dipole during last days of monsoon season that in return caused heavy flooding in parts of Sub-continent.

According to their model, monsoon could create some problems in some places of north-eastern, central and adjoining north-western parts of India though at the same time,  the same model that is forecasting for Negative Indian Ocean dipole is forecasting a weak La-Nina later in the season.

‘South Korea believes a good monsoon ahead’

Temperatures across the world’s ocean

South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre have ruled out that there will be below normal rains this year in the sub-continent. Their model expects overall normal to above normal monsoon rainfall during June and July while slight decrease in rain-coverage in the month of August.

‘Indians neglect -IOD’

IMD’s forecast over the years

The forecast of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has not mentioned the Negative India Ocean Dipole development, in simple words they have completely neglected the Indian ocean Dipole phenomenon therefore they believe on a normal monsoon season.

Breif Timeline of  2013 Monsoon season

Karachi beach during a monsoon season

It was feared that the low pressure that formed in the Arabian sea off the coast of Oman, if it intensifies then it would drag the moisture away from the sub-continent thus causing a delay in monsoon’s westward advancement but the monsoon was saved as the low pressure near Oman fizzled though some decrease in thunderstorm activity over western India coast did occur which will improve in few days  and a second depression BOB 02 formed in the Bay of Bengal that moved towards north-eastern areas of Indian causing monsoon onset over many parts of India. Following are the important dates on which monsoon arrived over the sub-continent;

• May 17 – Andaman sea and south Bay of Bengal
• June 1 – Kerala, PWP had predicted that it will hit early than IMD’s June 3 forecast. 

Two low pressures formed in the Arabian sea both were unimportant for the sub-continent. In the both of Bay of Bengal, two depressions formed, in which one of intensified into a cyclone ‘Mahasen’.

Early Monsoon has been vigorous

Monsoon rainfall in Karachi 2010

So far the sea surface temperatures of the Pacific ocean are neutral though later this year a weak La-Nina can develop during late July/August and during this period the negative India ocean dipole is expected to peak, both of these phenomenons will influence the monsoon season. So far the monsoon has been vigorous over India as 26% above normal rainfall has occurred. From June 9, the monsoon coverage in the sub-continent would increase significantly. Two low pressure from the Bay of Bengal can move towards central India, another circulation can form in the North Arabian sea.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s monsoon forecast that was issued on May 6 has been revised on June 6, following is the forecast of PWP;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressures in Bay of Bengal, Monsoon will be very active in the month of June as there is a possibility of pre-monsoon in Sindh and Punjab, moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Punjab (including Lahore) and Sindh (including Karachi) during the late midweek and last week of June due to the weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. Eastern & western winds interaction possible during this period of June and later in the season in upper areas of Pakistan which could lead to heavy rainfall over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well. Monsoon onset in Pakistan can take place in the last weeks of June/first week of July especially in the northern areas of the country. Pakistan can experience near to normal rainfall in June till early July on the wider-scale while normal to below normal rainfall after mid-week of July till August as a whole. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Due to the high possibility of the formation of negative Indian ocean Dipole, rain activity could be significantly hampered from mid-week of July and would peak in August, a partial effect of weak La-Nina might be observable later in the monsoon season . However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a monsoon season? - Part II
• Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed! - Part III
• Look back at Past: Pre-Monsoon rains are just around the corner? - Part IV
• Monsoon facing the biggest challenge from its own Ocean! - Part V
• Part VI coming soon

TO BE CONTINUED……