Is it a blessing or a curse?

Lightning over the skiy of Lahore on May 13

On May 12, 10 people lost their lives in the Punjab province as fierce windstorms and thunderstorms battered Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan and other cities. On May 14, a second wave of the ongoing unusual rain hit southern parts of the Pakistan particularly the Sindh province where deadly dust storms and heavy downpour claimed four lives while 40 were injured.

The rains would start affecting central and northern parts of the country from tonight/tomorrow evening with intervals till the weekend. After that a dry week is expected. Following is the rain recorded last night in various areas of the country;

• Dadu got 40 mm. (Sindh)
• Lasbela got 33 mm. (Balochistan)
• Nawabshah got 19 mm. (Sindh)
• D.G.Khan got 5 mm. (Punjab)
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm. (Azad Kashmir)
• Karachi got 1 mm. (Sindh)
• Hunza got 1 mm. (Gilgit-Baltistan)

May is the hottest month in most parts of Pakistan with little rain that mostly falls in the northern areas of the country. However this May has been wetter across the country with low temperatures which is a big blow for the Pre-monsoon heating.

“This is the first article related to the monsoon season of 2014 and it will be followed by many more articles”

El-Nino: Monsoon’s biggest nightmare!

Beautiful mix of monsoon clouds over Calcutta

El-Nino is a Spanish word which means boy, it may also refer to a Christ child because of the periodic warming in the Pacific near South America that happens around Christmas. It causes extreme weather such as floods and droughts in many regions of the world. It causes drought in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, parts of Australia and many other countries while it causes wet conditions and floods in other part of the world. It has a deep effect on the Indian monsoon. It forms due to the warming of Pacific Ocean thus the number of typhoons are increased in Pacific ocean while Atlantic ocean usually becomes calm due to intense wind shear. El-Nino is also said to increase malaria disease in the sub-continent.

The opposite of El-Nino is La-Nina, La-Nina is also a Spanish word which means girl. It causes wet conditions and floods in the Sub-continent while drought and dry weather over other parts of the world. It happens due to the cooling of Pacific ocean.

The Last El-Nino Monsoon in Pakistan

Track of monsoon low pressures in 2009

During this year most of Pakistan was going through El-Nino that caused 30% below normal rainfall.

Background

Overall, 9 weather system affected Pakistan during the monsoon of 2009, the Sindh province was the most wettest region of the country as 5 weather system affected the province. While Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir received weak moisture from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea, which interacted with the western disturbances. Baluchistan, FATA, Gilgit and parts of Khyber province received drizzle to light rainfall during this period as they are outside the monsoon zone. Karachi got 439.2 mm during the monsoon of 2009 while the average is just 146.4 mm.

June – Pre monsoon

Pre-monsoon activity was observed in Sindh including Karachi due to the formation of weak tropical depression ARB 01 in the Arabian sea on June 23. The storm caused light rainfall with gusty winds in the coastal belt. 3 mm rainfall was recorded in Karachi due to this depression. On June 25, the remnants of ARB 01 helped the formation of another weak tropical depression ARB 02 which was just 300 km away from Karachi, it however caused strong winds in the coastal Sindh. No pre-monsoon activity occurred in upper parts of the country, western disturbance (non-monsoon weather system) however caused rainfall in those areas.

July

Karachi flooded during 2009

The first proper monsoon rainfall of Pakistan occurred on July 18 in Sindh province, this low pressure caused record-breaking rainfall of 245 mm in Karachi in just 4 hours on the night of July 18, this low developed as a tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal on July 14 and moved in a west-north-west direction, then started losing its strength and turned into well-marked low on 15 July after crossing Madhya Pradesh (India) it finally reached over Southeastern parts of Rajasthan (India) on July 18 as a low pressure. It moved continuously in the same direction and reached over Sindh on 19  July, 2009 where the torrential rains were recorded which caused urban flooding in the area especially Karachi and Hyderabad.

The second monsoon system developed over northwest Bay of Bengal on July 20 which again intensified into a tropical depression on July 21, it also moved in the same direction as the previous one did, it however weakened quickly and reached the southern parts of Rajasthan on July 24 and from here it moved further towards Sindh where it later on dissipated. Due to this weather system moderate rains with isolated heavy falls with strong winds were observed over coastal & Southeastern parts of Sindh. Karachi received 18 mm rainfall from this system.

August

During the month of August only one monsoon system developed in the Bay of Bengal on August 27, this weather system initially moved rapidly in a northwesterly direction and reached over southeast Madhya Pradesh (India) on July 28. After moving west-northwestward it reached Rajasthan on July 29 and weakened gradually. Under its influence moderate to heavy rainfalls were recorded over southeast Sindh. In Karachi, this well-marked low pressure caused 147 mm rainfall on August 31.

September

During the month of September, only one monsoon low originated from North Bay of Bengal, on September 5, which took a west north-westerly course till it reached over northern parts of Madhya Pradesh on September 10. From here it moved north-north-eastwards and dissipated without affecting Pakistan.

November – Post monsoon

On November 4, a low pressure formed in the Arabian sea and on November 7, it intensified into  cyclone “Phyan”(tropical storm on SSHS). The cyclone had 50 mph winds as it battered Mumbai and Indian state of Gujarat. The storm caused dusty winds in the coastal parts of Sindh. However six Pakistani fishermen were trapped in the storm later rescued by the Indian Navy.

Pakistan has witnessed a strong El-Nino in 1997 while moderate El-Nino in 2002 and 2009. Weak El-Nino was observed in 2004.

Beware! El-Nino is very much here

Pre El-Nino: May 1997 and May 2014

On March 18, PWP made an article about the possible emergence of El-Nino during the upcoming monsoon. PWP Twitter warned the concerned authorities to stay on alert as drought conditions might worsen in the upcoming monsoon as a precautionary measure.

2014′s El-Nino can be as severe as 1997′s El-Nino

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Australian and Japanese Meteorological Agencies have issued El-Nino watch for the Pacific Ocean while the American scientists are 80% sure that it would turn out to be an El-Nino year. They say that if El-Nino comes early this year and ‘stronger as expected’ then global records would be broken in 2015. 2014 could be a hotter than average year, in Pakistan the hottest month of May has so far been cooler due to the frequent westerlies which increase in their frequency in an El-Nino year. According to NASA, the years with El-Nino are generally hotter than normal. They further state;

 “Conditions in May 2014 bear some similarities to those of May 1997, a year that brought one of the most potent El Nino events of the 20th century. El Nino will hit around by July which might be the strongest phenomenon in two decades.”

Severe El-Nino of 1997 and Sub-continent’s Monsoon

One of the strongest El-Nino impacted the world in 1997 but strangely Sub-continent witnessed normal rains however it was later discovered that Indian Ocean was witnessing a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) that eased the effects of El-Nino. Currently the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and it might remain neutral till the end of this year. Early next year a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) might develop.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) issues it’s monsoon forecast of 2014 which is stated below;

“Due to the expected arrival of El-Nino in July, Monsoon 2014 could be below normal across the country. There is a slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in southern Pakistan in June particularly Sindh province. Below normal to near normal rains can occur in the northern areas (north Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan) in June and July. In August, normal rain can occur in central (South Punjab and adjoining Balochistan and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and North Punjab with possibility of one to two scattered heavy downpour. Since it can be an El-Nino Monsoon therefore the frequency of western disturbance might increase which can bring most rains to the northern and adjoining central areas of the country.Below normal rain to drought conditions may occur in September in parts of the country. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year in the country) can never be ruled out.”

The forecast is based on the output from various international numerical models and global weather agencies. PWP would review it’s forecast in Monsoon II if necessary.

Monsoon Special articles for 2014

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Monsoon 2014: Pakistan and India at the mercy of strongest El-Nino in decades! - Part I

Last cyclone hit Oman in 2011

Cyclone Keila – Last cyclone in Oman

For the past couple of days Oman has been under the grip of a rumoured cyclone as lot of people from Oman have emailed Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) to ask whether a cyclone is expected in Oman. In March 2014, UAE witnessed strong rumours about a week-long thunderstorm. 

Is a cyclone forming in the Arabian sea?

CMC shows a weather system in the Arabian sea

On May 4, PWP did say that a numerical model (CFS) shows a tropical depression in the central Arabian sea but it was early to trust that track and reach conclusions. PWP did not focus on that forecast as it was early to go in depth. PWP told it’s readers that they should not trust that map as numerical models update themselves every 6 hours. Out of the 14 numerical models that were analysed by The Portal, only three models (NAVGEM, CMC and MOD) show that a tropical storm might move towards Yemen and adjoining Oman while the rest show nothing or a system fizzling out in open sea waters.

PWP believes a circulation might form in the central Arabian sea on May 31 or June 1 that might eventually move in a western direction. This circulation would have a negative impact on the Indian Monsoon as it would drift all the moisture away from the western coast of India hence a delay over the monsoon in the Indian state of Kerala may occur. PWP would go in detail for this weather system if necessary but The Portal would wait for a low pressure to form first.

List of cyclones in Oman since 2000

Cyclones making landfall in the state is not rare. Following is the list of cyclones that made landfall in Oman since 2000;

• In May 2002, a relatively weak cyclone made landfall over lower Oman and killed 9 people. It brought 251 mm rain to Oairoon.
• In June 2007, a category-5 super cyclone ‘Gonu’ made landfall over northern Oman. It had the strongest winds for a cyclone in the north Indian ocean that was 165 miles per hour. The super storm killed 50 people in the country and brought 600 mm rain to the desert state.
• In June 2008, a depression in the Arabian sea brought local heavy rain to parts of Oman.
• In June 2010, a category-4 cyclone ‘Phet’ killed 24 people in Oman. It was the second strongest cyclone in the Arabian sea after Gonu.
• In November 2011, cyclone ‘Keila’ killed 14 people in Oman. Torrential downpour was reported from the state.

Related Topics

• Super cyclones – The future of the Arabian sea!!
• History of cyclones in the Arabian sea
• Cyclones and sea levels are rising but slow!
• Detailed history of Cyclones in Pakistan

• Storm killed 81 people
• 120 year old record broken
• 10 countries were affected

Torrential rain from May 14 till May 17 broke 120 year old record in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina in southeast Europe. Authorities in Bosnia told the media that the damage is greater than the Bosnian war. There is a fear in Serbia that it might take 5 years for the agriculture in the affect areas to recover. The Serbian Prime Minister issued a following statement after the floods;

“This is the greatest flooding disaster ever. Not only in the past 100 years; this has never happened in Serbia’s history.”

Meteor shower in Sindh?

Meteorite of Thar in 2012

People from south-eastern Sindh have told Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) that a meteor has struck a town by the name of Diplo in Tharparkar district of Sindh. PWP cannot confirm this news and would wait for a media team to confirm this news. Ishaque Nizamani on PWP Facebook has written;

Aj mene meteor dkha boht bhayanak tha par abi tak us ke bary me tv pe report nhe ai us shahbe saqib me awaz bhi ajeeb thee us k bad exploding bhi suni gai

(Today I saw I meteor, it was very scary but till now there is no news on the TV. It had a weird sound and after a while we heard an explosion).

Another person by the name of Abdul Jabbar Junejo wrote on PWP Facebook;

Bright fire ball (meteor fall) in north west of Diplo so bright that clouds were visible due to light. Seen towards hyd (Hyderabad) side.

This is a developing story updates would be issued here if necessary. Did you observe a meteor in Tharparkar? Do let us know.

The meteor shower of 2012 in Sindh

On May 5, a meteor shower occurred in the Ladki village of Tharparkar district in Sindh during the night of May 5. The meteor caused a small crater. No damage occurred in the area however the meteor fell over a school building. The local people described the event as loud as thunderstorm or a bomb blast reported by a journalist Prem Shivani. The meteor weighed about few hundred grams. (The actual image of the meteorite that hit the Thar region of Pakistan can be seen above)

2011 – 2014

The Portal was never a full time blog it was always decided by us that one day we would end it, nothing goes on for ever. First we decided that PWP would end in December 2011 but after delaying that we finally decided that the blog would surely end in May 2014 therefore there were less updates this year. Our main aim of spreading the awareness of Pak weather has been completed there is no reason to continue the blog any further, we have no interest to give more updates. We would thank Allah Almighty for giving the blog enormous fame in short span of time. It was all worth it. Thank You And Goodbye.

•  This article has been shared Muhammad Taha for PWP from Karachi city, Sindh, Pakistan

Karachi flooded during 2009

Karachi is not a rainy city and any rain received by this city is always welcomed by its citizens, as it brings down temperature and cleans the atmosphere.
Some monsoons in the city have been rather dry but others quite wet, and 2009 was one of those monsoons.

16 July 2009:

In the month of the March, PWP published five articles out of which two were of Portal Interactive;

1. Portal Interactive: The unforgettable rain of July 2009
2. Portal Interactive: Finding and Locating the Correct Direction
3. Unexpected Monsoon may worsen the Thar drought!
4. Welcome to Thar – Pakistan’s Africa near Mega city Karachi!
5. Pakistan Weather Portal – February 2014 in Review!

Article of the month

1. Welcome to Thar – Pakistan’s Africa near Mega city Karachi!

Upon witnessing prosperity in the West, many countries like Pakistan adopted a policy of industrialization, regarding it as essential for a country’s rapid increasing population which as of 2016 is estimated at 193.2 million. This development however has not been environmentally sustainable with natural resources being depleted at an alarming rate. Atmospheric contamination, deterioration in the state of pure water, abnormal change in climatic conditions and other environmental issues are all inter-linked in Pakistan, one calamity follows another. The catastrophic events of 2010 floods are widely regarded as a corroboration of this fact.

No environmental issue is of greater concern to the Pakistani society than water pollution. Faced with water scarcity and unable to remove the harmful components, unclean water ingestion contributes to 40% deaths annually as 80% of Pakistan’s population consumes contaminated water. Left with insanitary and unhygienic conditions, diseases like diarrhea, typhoid, dysentery, cholera and hepatitis are endemic not only in the rural communities but also in the urban areas.

90% of the industrial waste from Karachi, Pakistan’s largest and most populated metropolis is dumped into the Arabian Sea disrupting   marine life and having an adverse effect on the ecosystem. In the absence of adequate water treatment plants, up to 90% of the water being supplied to the city is unfit for human consumption. Presence of E Coli, Giardia and Salmonella infections are the repercussions of untreated municipal sewage water mingling with drinking water pipelines. With the provision of untreated water, brain-eating amoeba has become an emerging threat as 41% of the water has no chlorine – the only defense against the deadly pathogen. Tainted with bacterial and fecal contamination, drinking water claims the lives of 20,000 children annually in Karachi. Having the highest child mortality rate in the world, every year 250,000 children under the age of 5 years die in Pakistan due to waterborne diseases with diarrhea being the leading cause of death. It has been estimated that such diseases are costing the national economy a staggering $1.3 billion yearly.

The consequence of confronting terrorism along with constant pressure for economic growth has led the State to, unfortunately, neglect environmental preservation; however, at a critical time when the natural deposits are being exhausted, the need for an environmentally sustainable development is greater than ever. To identify the effects of pollution during development, an Environmental Impact assessment (EA) must be undertaken to determine eco-efficiency of a project. Through Laws and Legislation, industries should be bound to recycle effluent waste that could be used for Irrigation and Agricultural purposes. A strict policy must be enforced upon giant water corporations to stop them from draining mineral-enriched water that renders the area barren and leads to water scarcity. 100 million cases of diarrhea each year and other waterborne diseases can only decline if a multi-barrier system is installed at water treatment plants to filter-out deadly pollutants. With the assistance of advanced technology we can determine which supply line of water has been compromised with contaminated particles; this early warning system can be effective in eradicating waterborne diseases. An orderly monitoring of water distribution resources through control and command approach would make sure that the water contains satisfactory chlorine levels to ward off pathogenic parasites. Faced with uncertain climatic conditions, the need of preserving the monsoon precipitation through a systematic construction of new barrages and reservoirs has risen. Owing to which, the impending menace of water shortage can be subdued during the years of drought.

The State has much to endeavor with its additional battles. Henceforth, public participation should also be encouraged to ward off the ominousness of desecration which is laborious but rewarding for a healthier Pakistan!

Karachi is experiencing one of its wettest monsoon seasons. The fragile infrastructure of the city is recovering from the previous rains that sub-merged much of the metropolis in the month of July. The rains are battering the city with almost a 7 to 10 day gap. The unofficial stats of the last three major rains were;

• July 6: 75 mm, more focus in the South
• July 17: 110 mm, more focus in the South
• July 26 and July 27: 185 mm (Two-day total), more focus in the North

Now another monsoon spell can rattle the city.

Karachi Update: August 6 till August 9

A weather system, whose origins can be traced back to eastern India and the Bay of Bengal will travel towards Indian Gujarat and adjoining Sindh from August 5 where the moist winds/circulation from the Arabian Sea can strengthen the system into a strong monsoon system by August 6/August 7.

Under the influence of this weather system, temperatures in Karachi can be near record-breaking for the month of August.

• High temperatures on August 6 and August 7: Mercury can be in the range of 37°C to 40°C, feel-like temperature can reach 42°C to 44°C, with an error of (+2/-2°C). Highest temperature recorded in August is 41.7 °C on August 9, 1964.

• By late August 6/August 7, the system will be over the coast of Indian Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. Over the weekend, it will move in a SSW or WSW direction towards the open waters of Arabian Sea (ECMWF shows cluster of thunderstorms crossing Oman and reaching as far as Saudi Arabia and UAE).
  • • Some strong thunderstorms coupled with gusty winds can form over eastern and coastal Sindh that could affect Karachi from late August 6 till August 8 with intervals, leading to heavy rain and urban flooding in vulnerable areas (winds can range from 45 mph to 60 mph, areas in south and east of Karachi can experience higher winds). The system will start weakening from August 8 evening, weak thunder clouds can form (chances 55%) on August 9. This forecast is with an error of +1/-1 day whereas the probability of such events unfolding is 75%.

Concerned authorities and citizens are requested to remain vigilant through-out the month of August in view of more torrential rains.

This post has been published in partnership with a Karachi-based NGO. We request our readers to follow the guidelines issued by the Government of Pakistan in event of any severe weather. Further details can be found on http://www.pmd.gov.pk/